The School of Odds
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Essendon Bombers v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 05:15 UTC

Final: Essendon Bombers 50–117 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 22.01%4.54fair odd
EV -0.975%
Edge -0.217%
Kelly -0.279%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%22.19%21.99%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.144.154.5027.03%24.16%24.10%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 77.99%1.28fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -6.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.05%77.81%78.01%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.211.221.2688.50%82.44%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 22.01%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 77.99%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.50, with an expected value of -0.975%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.975%E -0.217%K -0.279%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.41%E -5.34%K -32.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-04 13:05
Tipico (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -0.975%E -0.217%K -0.279%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.75%E -7.48%K -51.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-05 02:50
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -4.72%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.41%E -5.34%K -32.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-01 02:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -4.72%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.41%E -5.34%K -32.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-01 04:59
TAB🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.85%E -3.97%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 05:10
Coolbet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.85%E -3.97%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 22:30
PlayUp🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.85%E -3.97%K -22.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 03:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.63%E -4.65%K -26.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 04:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -7.19%E -6.04%K -37.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 04:25
Bet Right🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -7.58%E -1.80%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.29%E -2.65%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 05:10
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.58%E -1.80%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.07%E -3.31%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 04:25
Betsson🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -7.58%E -1.80%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.97%E -6.75%K -44.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 01:00
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -7.58%E -1.80%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.97%E -6.75%K -44.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 01:00
SportsBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -8.68%E -2.09%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -4.85%E -3.97%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 05:10
Casumo🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.78%E -2.38%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.07%E -3.31%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 04:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.78%E -2.38%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.07%E -3.31%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 04:55
TABtouch🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.78%E -2.38%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.07%E -3.31%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 04:55
Grosvenor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -9.78%E -2.38%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.07%E -3.31%K -17.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-05 04:55
DraftKings🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -9.78%E -2.38%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.85%E -3.97%K -22.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 05:10
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.98%E -2.99%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.85%E -3.97%K -22.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 01:54
Unibet (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -11.98%E -2.99%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.52%EV -9.53%E -8.21%K -59.54%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-05 05:05
NetBet (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.03%EV -11.98%E -2.99%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 77.97%EV -11.87%E -10.50%K -91.28%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-04 23:49
Pinnacle🎯3.91I 25.58%NM 24.22%EV -13.96%E -3.57%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.78%EV -2.51%E -2.01%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 05:00
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -14.18%E -3.64%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -1.73%E -1.37%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 03:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -14.18%E -3.64%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -1.73%E -1.37%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 03:20
Everygame🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -17.48%E -4.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -4.85%E -3.97%K -22.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 02:55
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -18.58%E -5.02%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05%EV -4.07%E -3.31%K -17.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-05 04:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73%0.0%2026-07-05 05:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64%1.27I 78.74%NM 78.36%0.5%2026-07-05 05:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%1.0%2026-07-05 05:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.13%90.00I 1.11%NM 1.02%8.8%2026-07-05 00:59