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Essendon Bombers v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 02:21 UTC

Final: Essendon Bombers 95–105 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 46.05%2.17fair odd
EV +1.31%
Edge +0.595%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.92%45.95%47.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.062.082.2053.19%48.44%48.08%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 53.95%1.85fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.08%54.08%54.05%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.731.731.7961.73%57.80%57.80%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 46.05%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 53.95%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.31%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +1.31%E +0.595%K +1.09%G +0.014%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -9.36%E -5.57%K -13.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 02:10
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +1.31%E +0.595%K +1.09%G +0.014%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.90%E -5.93%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 02:14
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -0.994%E -0.462%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -7.20%E -4.19%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 01:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -0.994%E -0.462%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -7.20%E -4.19%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 01:49
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -0.994%E -0.462%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -8.28%E -4.87%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 01:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -0.994%E -0.462%K -0.864%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -8.28%E -4.87%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 02:09
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 02:09
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 01:44
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 01:44
Bet Right🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 02:05
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 02:19
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 02:20
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 02:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 02:20
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -5.14%E -2.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 02:19
Dabble (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -3.97%E -2.23%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 02:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 02:20
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 01:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -6.98%E -3.46%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 01:59
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 02:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.28%E -4.87%K -11.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 14:24
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -10.20%E -5.23%K -10.74%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -3.43%E -1.92%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 02:19
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.20%E -5.23%K -10.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-21 14:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.76%EV -11.59%E -6.03%K -12.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.24%EV -12.60%E -7.78%K -20.32%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-23 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.92%EV -13.43%E -7.14%K -15.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.08%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 02:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-08-23 02:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%0.7%2026-08-23 02:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%2.0%2026-08-23 02:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.62%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.06%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%8.8%2026-08-23 01:29
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.87%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.22%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.4%2026-08-23 02:20