Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers v Greater Western Sydney Giants

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 06:40 UTC

Final: Essendon Bombers 67–64 Greater Western Sydney Giants

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

16%

84%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 15.97%6.26fair odd

EV +20.56%

Edge +2.72%

Kelly +3.14%

Growth +0.646%

assuming max odds 7.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.51%15.61%16.02%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.956.216.257.5520.20%16.10%16.00%13.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit)

Prediction 84.03%1.19fair odd

EV -3.36%

Edge -2.93%

Kelly -22.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.82%84.39%83.98%87.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.111.111.1595.24%90.30%90.09%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 15.97%; Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit): 84.03%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.26. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.56%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetUS	7.55I 13.25%NM 12.51%EV +20.56%E +2.72%K +3.14%G +0.646%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.49%EV -9.25%E -8.56%K -115.58%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-19 05:15
Marathon Bet	7.40I 13.51%NM 12.53%EV +18.17%E +2.46%K +2.84%G +0.516%	1.06I 94.34%NM 87.47%EV -10.93%E -10.31%K -182.11%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-19 06:35
Casumo	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +11.78%E +1.68%K +1.96%G +0.231%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-19 06:35
Grosvenor	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +11.78%E +1.68%K +1.96%G +0.231%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-19 06:35
TABtouch	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +11.78%E +1.68%K +1.96%G +0.231%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-19 06:35
Unibet (NL)	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +11.78%E +1.68%K +1.96%G +0.231%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-19 06:35
Tipico (DE)	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +11.78%E +1.68%K +1.96%G +0.231%	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -10.09%E -9.43%K -144.09%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-13 13:35
Betr (AU)	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.80%E +0.584%K +0.690%G +0.026%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.73%E -6.06%K -61.14%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-19 00:05
Ladbrokes (AU)	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.80%E +0.584%K +0.690%G +0.026%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.73%E -6.06%K -61.14%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-12 21:09
Neds	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +3.80%E +0.584%K +0.690%G +0.026%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.73%E -6.06%K -61.14%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-12 21:09
Coral	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +3.80%E +0.584%K +0.690%G +0.026%	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-15 03:03
Ladbrokes (UK)	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +3.80%E +0.584%K +0.690%G +0.026%	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-15 05:00
Bet Right	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -0.196%E -0.031%K -0.037%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.88%E -5.25%K -49.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-19 06:35
Unibet	6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -0.196%E -0.031%K -0.037%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-19 06:35
TAB	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -0.995%E -0.160%K -0.191%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.88%E -5.25%K -49.04%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-19 06:35
PointsBet (AU)	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -0.995%E -0.160%K -0.191%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.88%E -5.25%K -49.04%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-19 01:40
DraftKings	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -4.19%E -0.698%K -0.838%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.73%E -6.06%K -61.14%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-19 06:35
Coolbet	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -7.38%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.20%E -3.69%K -30.03%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-19 06:35
PlayUp	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.18%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.20%E -3.69%K -30.03%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-19 06:00
SportsBet	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.18%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.04%E -4.46%K -38.80%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-19 06:30
Paddy Power	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -12.17%E -2.21%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.20%E -3.69%K -30.03%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-19 06:30
Everygame	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -12.17%E -2.21%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.88%E -5.25%K -49.04%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-19 02:25
Pinnacle	5.37I 18.62%NM 17.64%EV -14.25%E -2.65%K -3.26%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.36%EV -3.36%E -2.93%K -22.43%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-19 06:25
NetBet (FR)	5.30I 18.87%NM 16.54%EV -15.37%E -2.90%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 83.46%EV -11.77%E -11.21%K -235.34%G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-07-19 06:35
NordicBet	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -16.96%E -3.26%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.41%EV -6.73%E -6.06%K -61.14%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-16 16:10
Betsson	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -16.96%E -3.26%K -4.04%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.41%EV -6.73%E -6.06%K -61.14%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-16 16:05
Unibet (FR)	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.18%EV -20.96%E -4.23%K -5.31%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 81.82%EV -7.57%E -6.88%K -75.65%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-07-19 06:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	7.60I 13.16%NM 13.14%	1.15I 86.96%NM 86.86%	0.1%	2026-07-19 06:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)	7.60I 13.16%NM 13.14%	1.15I 86.96%NM 86.86%	0.1%	2026-07-19 06:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)	7.60I 13.16%NM 13.14%	1.15I 86.96%NM 86.86%	0.1%	2026-07-19 06:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.32%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	8.5%	2026-07-16 16:10