The School of Odds

Essendon Bombers v Greater Western Sydney Giants

2026-07-19 06:40 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 15.79%6.33fair odd
EV +5.80%
Edge +0.865%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 6.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.21%15.72%15.85%18.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.856.086.256.7021%16%16%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit)

Prediction 84.21%1.19fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -4.29%
Kelly -37.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.79%84.28%84.15%85.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.051.101.111.1395%91%90%88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +5.80%E +0.865%K +1.02%G +0.059%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 09:44
Casumo6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.406%K +0.480%G +0.013%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:09
Grosvenor6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.406%K +0.480%G +0.013%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:09
TABtouch6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.406%K +0.480%G +0.013%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:09
Unibet (NL)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.406%K +0.480%G +0.013%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:10
TAB6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.406%K +0.480%G +0.013%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:24
PointsBet (AU)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.406%K +0.480%G +0.013%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 10:34
Betr (AU)6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +2.64%E +0.406%K +0.480%G +0.013%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.37%E -6.70%K -73.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 11:29
Coolbet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.26%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 10:19
Paddy Power6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.26%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.69%E -5.08%K -47.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 09:48
Tipico (DE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -5.26%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.37%E -6.70%K -73.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 09:44
Unibet5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -8.41%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 10:09
NordicBet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -13.15%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.33%EV -7.37%E -6.70%K -73.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-12 09:44
Betsson5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -13.15%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.33%EV -7.37%E -6.70%K -73.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-12 09:44
NetBet (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.15%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 83.97%EV -11.58%E -11.03%K -231.60%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-12 10:20
Unibet (FR)4.85I 20.62%NM 18.21%EV -23.42%E -4.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 81.79%EV -9.05%E -8.38%K -113.17%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-12 11:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%6.5%2026-07-12 09:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%6.5%2026-07-12 09:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%6.5%2026-07-12 09:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.16%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.3%2026-07-12 11:09