The School of Odds
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Essendon Bombers v Collingwood Magpies

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 05:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 32.33%3.09fair odd
EV +0.221%
Edge +0.071%
Kelly +0.105%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.65%32.43%32.41%34.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.912.913.1039.22%34.41%34.36%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Collingwood Magpies (Visit)

Prediction 67.67%1.48fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -9.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.22%67.57%67.59%69.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.391.401.4276.92%72.13%71.68%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 32.33%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 67.67%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.221%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +0.221%E +0.071%K +0.105%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -7.29%E -5.32%K -19.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:10
BetUS🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -1.40%E -0.458%K -0.681%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.94%E -4.27%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 21:19
Pinnacle🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.28%EV -2.69%E -0.893%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.72%EV -7.29%E -5.32%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 02:00
Dabble (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.01%E -1.00%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -3.01%E -1.00%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.94%E -4.27%K -15.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-24 02:40
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.01%E -1.00%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.61%E -4.79%K -17.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:09
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.01%E -1.00%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.61%E -4.79%K -17.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:09
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.01%E -1.00%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.61%E -4.79%K -17.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:10
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.01%E -1.00%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.61%E -4.79%K -17.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:09
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.63%E -1.57%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.63%E -1.57%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:49
Coolbet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.28%E -1.80%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.58%E -3.25%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 10:04
SportsBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.60%E -1.92%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.58%E -3.25%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 13:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.78%EV -5.60%E -1.92%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.22%EV -7.97%E -5.86%K -22.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 16:09
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.25%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.91%E -2.75%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-24 02:50
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.25%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.91%E -2.75%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-24 02:50
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -6.25%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.58%E -3.25%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-24 02:45
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.25%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.61%E -4.79%K -17.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 22:09
Everygame🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.25%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.97%E -5.86%K -22.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 13:28
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -6.25%E -2.15%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.64%E -6.40%K -24.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 10:55
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.89%E -2.39%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-22 11:19
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.21%E -2.51%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 23:03
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.21%E -2.51%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 23:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.86%E -2.76%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-24 02:44
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.34%EV -12.06%E -4.44%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.66%EV -12.03%E -9.25%K -40.09%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-23 22:19
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -12.71%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 18:59
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -12.71%E -4.71%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.26%E -3.76%K -13.15%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 18:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.78%EV -17.56%E -6.89%K -11.33%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%EV -7.97%E -5.86%K -22.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%0.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%0.7%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%0.7%2026-04-24 03:50