Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 09:22 UTC

Final: Essendon Bombers 67–72 Carlton Blues

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

19%

81%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 18.87%5.30fair odd

EV +9.47%

Edge +1.63%

Kelly +1.97%

Growth +0.187%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.18%18.62%18.66%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.355.145.135.8022.99%19.45%19.51%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 81.13%1.23fair odd

EV -2.65%

Edge -2.21%

Kelly -13.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.95%81.38%81.34%83.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.091.151.151.2091.74%86.70%86.58%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 18.87%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 81.13%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.47%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Unibet (NL)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +9.47%E +1.63%K +1.97%G +0.187%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.52%E -6.59%K -53.68%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-07 09:19
Grosvenor🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +9.47%E +1.63%K +1.97%G +0.187%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.52%E -6.59%K -53.68%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-07 09:19
Casumo🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +9.47%E +1.63%K +1.97%G +0.187%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.52%E -6.59%K -53.68%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-07 09:19
TABtouch🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +9.47%E +1.63%K +1.97%G +0.187%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.52%E -6.59%K -53.68%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-07 09:19
Marathon Bet🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV +8.52%E +1.48%K +1.79%G +0.153%	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -9.95%E -8.96%K -90.45%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-06-07 09:18
Betr (AU)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +3.80%E +0.692%K +0.845%G +0.032%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.70%E -5.83%K -44.70%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-07 09:19
Bet Right🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +3.80%E +0.692%K +0.845%G +0.032%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.70%E -5.83%K -44.70%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-07 09:19
Dabble (AU)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +3.80%E +0.692%K +0.845%G +0.032%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.70%E -5.83%K -44.70%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-07 09:19
Unibet🎯	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV +0.029%E +0.005%K +0.007%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -7.52%E -6.59%K -53.68%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-06-07 09:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -0.915%E -0.174%K -0.215%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.89%E -5.08%K -36.83%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-07 09:19
Neds🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -0.915%E -0.174%K -0.215%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.89%E -5.08%K -36.83%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-07 09:19
BetUS🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -0.915%E -0.174%K -0.215%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -5.89%E -5.08%K -36.83%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-07 09:19
Pinnacle🎯	5.15I 19.42%NM 18.38%EV -2.80%E -0.544%K -0.675%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.62%EV -5.89%E -5.08%K -36.83%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-07 09:19
Coolbet🎯	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.75%E -0.735%K -0.914%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.89%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-07 09:19
Everygame🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.63%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.52%E -6.59%K -53.68%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-07 09:15
Tipico (DE)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -5.63%E -1.13%K -1.41%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -8.33%E -7.37%K -64.05%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-07 09:19
SportsBet🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -7.52%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.89%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-07 09:19
TAB🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -9.41%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.73%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-07 09:18
DraftKings🎯	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -9.41%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.27%E -3.62%K -23.73%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-07 09:19
PlayUp🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -10.35%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.46%E -2.91%K -18.21%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-07 09:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.35%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-07 09:19
Coral🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.35%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-07 09:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.35%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.08%E -4.34%K -29.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-06-07 09:19
NetBet (FR)🎯	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -13.18%E -2.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 80.84%EV -11.57%E -10.62%K -128.58%G +0.000%	13.5%	2026-06-07 09:19
Paddy Power🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.07%E -3.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.65%E -2.21%K -13.24%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-06-07 09:19
Unibet (FR)🎯	4.35I 22.99%NM 20.62%EV -17.90%E -4.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 79.38%EV -8.33%E -7.37%K -64.05%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-06-07 09:18

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79%	1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21%	0.2%	2026-06-07 09:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%	1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87%	0.5%	2026-06-07 09:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%	1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%	0.8%	2026-06-07 09:19

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
Betsson🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.78%	125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%	8.5%	2026-06-07 09:19
NordicBet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.78%	125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%	8.5%	2026-06-07 09:19