The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Essendon Bombers v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 02:36 UTC

Final: Essendon Bombers 79–143 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 12.41%8.06fair odd
EV +33.44%
Edge +3.11%
Kelly +3.43%
Growth +1.15%

assuming max odds 10.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.67%12.01%12.61%15.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.707.968.0010.7517.54%12.56%12.50%9.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 87.59%1.14fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -4.16%
Kelly -50.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.32%87.99%87.39%91.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.071.071.0999.01%93.88%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 12.41%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 87.59%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.06. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.44%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯10.75I 9.30%NM 8.67%EV +33.44%E +3.11%K +3.43%G +1.15%1.02I 98.04%NM 91.33%EV -10.66%E -10.45%K -533.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 02:12
PlayUp🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +24.13%E +2.41%K +2.68%G +0.647%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 02:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.51%E +0.648%K +0.735%G +0.040%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 01:15
Neds🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.51%E +0.648%K +0.735%G +0.040%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 01:15
Bet Right🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.51%E +0.648%K +0.735%G +0.040%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 02:05
TAB🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +5.51%E +0.648%K +0.735%G +0.040%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 02:10
Everygame🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +5.51%E +0.648%K +0.735%G +0.040%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 02:24
Betr (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.41%E -5.01%K -67.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 02:29
Dabble (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.41%E -5.01%K -67.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 02:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 02:30
Grosvenor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 02:14
Unibet (NL)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 02:15
TABtouch🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 02:14
Casumo🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 02:14
Tipico (DE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -0.697%E -0.087%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -8.03%E -7.65%K -160.67%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-01 00:04
Coolbet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -6.90%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.53%E -4.16%K -50.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 02:34
SportsBet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.90%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.41%E -5.01%K -67.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 02:29
Unibet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -6.90%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 02:15
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -6.90%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 00:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -6.90%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.28%E -5.87%K -89.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 00:03
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -6.90%E -0.921%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 02:35
Pinnacle🎯7.06I 14.16%NM 13.37%EV -12.37%E -1.75%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 86.63%EV -4.53%E -4.16%K -50.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 02:20
DraftKings🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.41%E -5.01%K -67.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 02:35
NetBet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -13.11%E -1.87%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 87.39%EV -11.54%E -11.42%K -1153.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 02:34
Unibet (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.68%EV -29.25%E -5.13%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 84.32%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.29%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 02:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%0.9%2026-05-02 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%0.9%2026-05-02 02:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%0.9%2026-05-02 02:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.00%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%7.9%2026-05-02 02:34
Betsson🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.00%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%7.9%2026-05-02 02:34