The School of Odds

Essendon Bombers v Adelaide Crows

2026-08-02 06:40 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -14.29%
Kelly -16.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%0.00%0.00%14.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.506.756.757.0015%15%15%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -90.09%
Kelly -909.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.41%0.00%0.00%86.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.101.101.101.1191%90%90%90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%5.2%2026-07-21 04:14
Paddy Power6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%5.5%2026-07-21 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.80I 12.82%NM 12.56%1.12I 89.29%NM 87.44%2.1%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.80I 12.82%NM 12.56%1.12I 89.29%NM 87.44%2.1%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.80I 12.82%NM 12.56%1.12I 89.29%NM 87.44%2.1%2026-07-21 06:10