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Collingwood Magpies v Melbourne Demons
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Collingwood Magpies (Local)
Prediction 49.84%2.01fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.917%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.99%49.69%50.14%51.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.871.881.9757.14%53.36%53.19%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne Demons (Visit)
Prediction 50.16%1.99fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.41%50.31%49.86%52.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.891.901.9556.50%52.92%52.63%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 49.84%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 50.16%. For Collingwood Magpies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.97, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -1.81%E -0.917%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -6.21%E -3.32%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-08 04:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -2.80%E -1.44%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -8.21%E -4.49%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-08 04:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -3.30%E -1.70%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -10.22%E -5.71%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-08 03:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.80%E -2.51%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.21%E -2.75%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.80%E -2.51%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.21%E -2.75%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.80%E -2.51%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.21%E -2.75%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.80%E -2.51%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.21%E -2.75%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.30%E -2.79%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.70%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 04:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.30%E -2.79%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.70%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 04:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.30%E -2.79%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.70%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 04:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.30%E -2.79%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.72%E -5.40%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-08 04:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.79%E -3.07%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -3.70%E -1.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-08 04:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -5.79%E -3.07%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -5.71%E -3.04%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -6.29%E -3.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -2.70%E -1.39%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-08 01:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -6.29%E -3.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -2.70%E -1.39%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-08 01:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -6.29%E -3.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -3.70%E -1.93%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 11:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -6.29%E -3.35%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -4.70%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-08 04:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.79%E -3.63%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.20%E -1.13%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-08 04:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.79%E -3.63%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -4.70%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.79%E -4.21%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.20%E -1.13%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-08 04:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.79%E -4.21%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.21%E -3.90%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-07 12:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -8.79%E -4.80%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -2.20%E -1.13%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 04:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -8.79%E -4.80%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -2.20%E -1.13%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 04:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.28%E -5.71%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.70%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-07 22:38 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.28%E -5.71%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.70%E -2.48%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-07 22:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -12.77%E -7.30%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -7.21%E -3.90%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.28%EV -12.77%E -7.30%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.72%EV -11.22%E -6.34%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-08 04:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 0.3% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13% | 0.3% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 0.5% | 2026-06-08 05:09 |