Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies v Greater Western Sydney Giants

Kickoff: 2026-03-27 08:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 67.66%1.48fair odd

EV -3.25%

Edge -2.27%

Kelly -7.56%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.49%67.82%67.51%70.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.381.381.4376.92%72.48%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit)

Prediction 32.34%3.09fair odd

EV +3.50%

Edge +1.09%

Kelly +1.59%

Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.82%32.18%32.49%34.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.942.953.2038.46%34.04%33.90%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 67.66%; Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit): 32.34%. For Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.50%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bet Right🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -7.31%E -5.34%K -19.76%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV +3.50%E +1.09%K +1.59%G +0.056%	4.2%	2026-03-27 08:35
TAB🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -7.99%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +3.50%E +1.09%K +1.59%G +0.056%	4.8%	2026-03-27 08:40
PlayUp🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -6.63%E -4.81%K -17.46%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +1.88%E +0.597%K +0.874%G +0.016%	4.2%	2026-03-27 08:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.42%EV -7.31%E -5.34%K -19.76%G +0.000%	3.11I 32.15%NM 30.58%EV +0.586%E +0.189%K +0.278%G +0.002%	5.1%	2026-03-27 08:30
Neds🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.99%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.263%E +0.085%K +0.125%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-27 08:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.99%E -5.87%K -22.18%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.263%E +0.085%K +0.125%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-27 08:35
SportsBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -7.31%E -5.34%K -19.76%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -2.32%E -0.770%K -1.15%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-27 08:30
Betr (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.97%E -0.990%K -1.49%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-27 07:14
Everygame🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -10.02%E -7.53%K -30.35%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -2.97%E -0.990%K -1.49%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-27 08:25
Marathon Bet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -8.66%E -6.42%K -24.75%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.18%EV -3.62%E -1.21%K -1.83%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-27 08:19
Grosvenor🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.59%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-27 03:45
Casumo🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.59%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-27 03:44
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.59%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-27 03:45
TABtouch🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.59%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-27 03:44
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.59%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-27 03:45
Coolbet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.60%E -3.26%K -11.23%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.24%E -1.79%K -2.71%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-27 08:29
BetUS🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.25%E -2.27%K -7.56%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -6.21%E -2.14%K -3.27%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-26 12:24
Unibet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.63%E -4.81%K -17.46%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.21%E -2.14%K -3.27%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-27 08:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.85%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-27 08:29
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.18%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-26 23:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.18%E -2.50%K -3.84%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-26 23:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.28%E -3.77%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.82%E -2.74%K -4.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-27 03:54
DraftKings🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -5.96%E -4.29%K -15.27%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.82%E -2.74%K -4.23%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-27 08:40
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 67.07%EV -8.66%E -6.42%K -24.75%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -11.06%E -4.02%K -6.32%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-03-27 08:40
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 67.66%EV -12.05%E -9.27%K -40.15%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 32.34%EV -12.03%E -4.42%K -6.99%G +0.000%	13.7%	2026-03-27 08:34
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 65.49%EV -7.31%E -5.34%K -19.76%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.51%EV -15.91%E -6.12%K -9.94%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-03-27 07:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 65.49%EV -7.31%E -5.34%K -19.76%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.51%EV -15.91%E -6.12%K -9.94%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-03-27 07:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69%	3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%	0.3%	2026-03-27 08:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%	0.5%	2026-03-27 08:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%	0.6%	2026-03-27 08:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.34%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.74%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%	7.8%	2026-03-27 08:40
Betsson🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.34%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.74%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%	7.8%	2026-03-27 08:39