The School of Odds
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Collingwood Magpies v Geelong Cats

Kickoff: 2026-07-30 09:30 UTC

Final: Collingwood Magpies 72–97 Geelong Cats

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 43.83%2.28fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.617%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%44.09%43.93%47.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.132.152.2551.28%46.88%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 56.17%1.78fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.70%55.91%56.07%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.681.701.7563.29%59.35%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 43.83%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 56.17%. For Collingwood Magpies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -1.39%E -0.617%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.19%E -3.71%K -9.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-30 09:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.39%E -0.617%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.88%E -4.80%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-30 09:25
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.63%E -3.35%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-30 09:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.19%E -3.71%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:24
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.19%E -3.71%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:14
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.12%E -6.33%K -16.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-30 09:24
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -4.46%E -2.04%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.75%E -4.07%K -10.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-30 09:30
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.89%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-30 09:28
BetUS🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -5.33%E -2.47%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -5.63%E -3.35%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-30 09:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.38%E -1.97%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-30 06:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.38%E -1.97%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-30 06:44
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:05
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:15
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:14
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 09:15
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.77%E -2.68%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.32%E -4.43%K -11.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-30 09:30
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.96%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.70%E -0.971%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 09:30
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.96%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.51%E -2.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-30 09:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -8.84%E -4.25%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -5.63%E -3.35%K -8.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-30 09:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -10.15%E -4.95%K -9.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -2.82%E -1.63%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-30 05:30
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -10.15%E -4.95%K -9.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -2.82%E -1.63%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-30 05:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -12.34%E -6.17%K -12.34%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -8.44%E -5.18%K -13.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-30 09:28
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.51%EV -13.66%E -6.93%K -14.08%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.49%EV -11.25%E -7.12%K -19.39%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-30 09:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.54%E -7.45%K -15.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -1.70%E -0.971%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-30 04:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%0.3%2026-07-30 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%0.4%2026-07-30 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-07-30 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.50%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%9.2%2026-07-30 09:29
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.58%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.51%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-07-30 09:30
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.58%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.51%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-07-30 09:29