The School of Odds

Collingwood Magpies v Geelong Cats

2026-07-30 09:30 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -47.39%
Kelly -90.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.05%0.00%0.00%45.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.102.102.1148%48%48%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -57.80%
Kelly -136.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%0.00%0.00%54.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.731.731.731.7358%58%58%58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%5.2%2026-07-21 04:14
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-07-21 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.7%2026-07-21 06:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.7%2026-07-21 06:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.7%2026-07-21 06:05