The School of Odds
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Collingwood Magpies v Fremantle Dockers

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 09:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 35.59%2.81fair odd
EV +3.22%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.70%
Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%35.30%35.68%37.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.652.652.9041.67%37.77%37.74%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fremantle Dockers (Visit)

Prediction 64.41%1.55fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.71%
Kelly -8.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.99%64.70%64.32%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.451.461.4972.99%68.80%68.49%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 35.59%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 64.41%. For Collingwood Magpies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.22%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +3.22%E +1.11%K +1.70%G +0.055%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -8.54%E -6.02%K -20.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-10 09:39
Dabble (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -2.11%E -0.769%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -5.97%E -4.09%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-10 09:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.11%E -0.769%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.26%E -5.04%K -16.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 09:40
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.11%E -0.769%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.26%E -5.04%K -16.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 09:40
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.89%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.04%E -2.71%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-10 09:40
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.89%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.68%E -3.16%K -9.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-10 09:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.89%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.32%E -3.62%K -11.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-10 09:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -3.89%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.97%E -4.09%K -12.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 09:39
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -3.89%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.97%E -4.09%K -12.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 09:39
Coolbet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -4.96%E -1.86%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.68%E -3.16%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 09:38
Marathon Bet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 34.96%EV -5.32%E -2.00%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.04%EV -7.90%E -5.52%K -18.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 09:39
TAB🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.68%E -3.16%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 09:40
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.68%E -3.16%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 09:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.68%E -3.16%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 09:39
Coral🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.97%E -4.09%K -12.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.97%E -4.09%K -12.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 09:39
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.26%E -5.04%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 09:40
SportsBet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -6.03%E -2.28%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -5.32%E -3.62%K -11.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-10 09:39
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.45%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.68%E -3.16%K -9.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-10 09:40
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.45%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.61%E -4.56%K -14.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 09:40
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.45%E -2.87%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.26%E -5.04%K -16.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 09:40
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -9.23%E -3.62%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.61%E -4.56%K -14.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 09:33
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -9.23%E -3.62%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.61%E -4.56%K -14.69%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 09:38
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -9.23%E -3.62%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -7.26%E -5.04%K -16.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-10 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.68%EV -12.08%E -4.89%K -8.22%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.32%EV -11.76%E -8.59%K -31.80%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-10 09:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.01%EV -14.57%E -6.07%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.99%EV -9.19%E -6.52%K -22.41%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-10 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%0.3%2026-04-10 09:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-04-10 09:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-04-10 09:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.97%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.5%2026-04-10 09:40
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.97%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.5%2026-04-10 09:40