The School of Odds

Collingwood Magpies v Carlton Blues

2026-07-18 09:35 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 57.80%1.73fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.79%57.99%58.03%59.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.521.611.611.6766%62%62%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 42.20%2.37fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%42.01%41.97%43.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.232.242.3049%45%45%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -3.47%E -2.08%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -6.32%E -2.85%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 09:14
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.47%E -2.08%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 08:08
PointsBet (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.05%E -2.44%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 10:09
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.63%E -2.80%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.06%E -2.25%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 11:39
Coolbet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -5.20%E -3.17%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -4.21%E -1.86%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 09:23
Bet Right1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -5.20%E -3.17%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -4.63%E -2.05%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 06:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.20%E -3.17%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 06:34
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.20%E -3.17%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.17%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 06:34
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.36%E -3.93%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 13:29
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.36%E -3.93%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.28%E -4.31%K -8.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 13:29
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.94%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.95%E -1.28%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 06:34
Grosvenor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.94%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.95%E -1.28%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 06:34
Casumo1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.94%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.95%E -1.28%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 06:34
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.94%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -2.95%E -1.28%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 06:34
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.94%E -4.31%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.06%E -2.25%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 06:29
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.52%E -4.70%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.95%E -1.28%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 06:34
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.52%E -4.70%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.95%E -1.28%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 08:09
Marathon Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.12%EV -7.52%E -4.70%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.32%E -2.85%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 14:44
Unibet (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.79%EV -9.83%E -6.30%K -17.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -13.50%E -6.58%K -12.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-12 13:29
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.41%E -6.71%K -18.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -2.95%E -1.28%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 06:39
NetBet (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%EV -12.14%E -7.99%K -23.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -11.39%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-12 13:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.81%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.19%6.8%2026-07-12 14:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.81%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.19%6.8%2026-07-12 14:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.81%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.19%6.8%2026-07-12 14:19

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 56.38%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.48%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.5%2026-07-12 13:29