The School of Odds
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Collingwood Magpies v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 09:35 UTC

Final: Collingwood Magpies 90–69 Carlton Blues

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 56.11%1.78fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.05%56.17%56.05%57.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.691.701.7363.69%59.31%58.82%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 43.89%2.28fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.97%43.83%43.95%45.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.142.2150.00%47.04%46.73%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 56.11%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 43.89%. For Collingwood Magpies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.73, with an expected value of -2.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.93%E -1.69%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.83%E -3.73%K -7.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 08:55
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.49%E -2.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 09:25
Dabble (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.49%E -2.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 05:20
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.49%E -2.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.96%E -3.28%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:00
Bet Right1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.49%E -2.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.96%E -3.28%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:25
Grosvenor1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.49%E -2.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.96%E -3.28%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:00
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.49%E -2.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.96%E -3.28%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:00
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.49%E -2.03%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.96%E -3.28%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:00
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -4.05%E -2.37%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.76%EV -7.39%E -3.50%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 09:10
Unibet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.05%E -2.37%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.83%E -3.73%K -7.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 09:10
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.76%E -2.19%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 08:59
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 03:54
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 03:50
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:30
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:20
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.83%E -3.73%K -7.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 09:15
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.61%E -2.71%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -12.22%E -6.11%K -12.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 09:24
Pinnacle1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -5.17%E -3.06%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -3.01%E -1.36%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-18 09:30
DraftKings1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.17%E -3.06%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 09:30
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.29%E -3.77%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.29%E -3.77%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -7.42%E -4.50%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -6.52%E -3.06%K -5.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-16 01:45
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.42%E -4.50%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.83%E -3.73%K -7.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-16 04:20
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.10%E -5.62%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-18 08:40
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.10%E -5.62%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.64%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-18 08:40
Unibet (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 56.91%EV -10.78%E -6.78%K -18.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -7.83%E -3.73%K -7.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-18 09:25
NetBet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -11.91%E -7.58%K -20.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -12.22%E -6.11%K -12.22%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-18 09:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-07-18 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-07-18 09:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%0.6%2026-07-18 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 56.38%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.48%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.5%2026-07-18 08:45