Language:English
Carlton Blues v Western Bulldogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlton Blues (Local)
Prediction 40.71%2.46fair odd
EV -0.272%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -0.188%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.75%40.61%40.83%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.312.302.4547.17%43.36%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Western Bulldogs (Visit)
Prediction 59.29%1.69fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -6.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.92%59.39%59.17%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.611.6266.67%62.83%62.11%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 40.71%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 59.29%. For Carlton Blues (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.272%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -0.272%E -0.111%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -7.50%E -4.81%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-16 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.272%E -0.111%K -0.188%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -8.09%E -5.22%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.31%E -0.961%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 09:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.31%E -0.961%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 09:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.31%E -0.961%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-16 09:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.34%E -1.85%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-16 09:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.34%E -1.85%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.13%E -3.21%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -4.75%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-16 09:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.16%E -2.21%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 09:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -5.97%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -5.72%E -3.60%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 00:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 00:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-16 03:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.09%E -5.22%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 03:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 09:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-15 23:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-15 23:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-16 09:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.09%E -5.22%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-16 01:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.09%E -5.22%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-16 01:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -8.82%E -3.94%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.49%EV -5.72%E -3.60%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 09:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -9.23%E -4.14%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -3.94%E -2.43%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -13.70%E -6.46%K -12.24%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.56%EV -11.06%E -7.37%K -22.12%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-16 07:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-05-16 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-05-16 09:25 |