The School of Odds
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Carlton Blues v West Coast Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 03:15 UTC

Final: Carlton Blues 117–64 West Coast Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 84.21%1.19fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -28.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.22%84.10%84.21%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.121.121.1495.24%89.60%89.29%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Coast Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 15.79%6.33fair odd
EV +6.59%
Edge +0.976%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.79%15.90%15.79%18.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.946.006.7520.83%16.84%16.67%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 84.21%; West Coast Eagles (Visit): 15.79%. For West Coast Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.33. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -9.05%E -8.38%K -113.18%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV +6.59%E +0.976%K +1.15%G +0.076%7.4%2026-06-27 01:29
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.407%K +0.481%G +0.013%5.5%2026-06-27 00:19
TABtouch🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.407%K +0.481%G +0.013%5.5%2026-06-27 00:20
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.407%K +0.481%G +0.013%5.5%2026-06-27 02:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.407%K +0.481%G +0.013%5.5%2026-06-27 00:19
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.64%E +0.407%K +0.481%G +0.013%5.5%2026-06-27 00:19
TAB🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.69%E -5.08%K -47.38%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -2.09%E -0.338%K -0.403%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-26 22:59
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.44%EV -5.69%E -5.08%K -47.38%G +0.000%6.08I 16.45%NM 15.56%EV -3.99%E -0.656%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 01:40
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-26 23:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-26 23:19
Neds🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-26 23:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-27 02:00
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-26 22:49
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.69%E -5.08%K -47.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-26 22:59
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-27 02:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-27 00:59
Coral🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-27 02:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.37%E -6.70%K -73.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-25 07:09
Everygame🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.37%E -6.70%K -73.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -5.25%E -0.875%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-26 23:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.00%E -3.51%K -28.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.20%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 02:09
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -9.20%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-27 01:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.84%E -4.29%K -37.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -9.20%E -1.60%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-27 01:49
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.43%EV -4.00%E -3.51%K -28.59%G +0.000%5.74I 17.42%NM 16.57%EV -9.36%E -1.63%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-26 19:29
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.00%E -3.51%K -28.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -13.15%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-26 22:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 83.97%EV -11.58%E -11.03%K -231.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.15%E -2.39%K -2.92%G +0.000%13.4%2026-06-26 23:29
NordicBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -5.69%E -5.08%K -47.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -21.04%E -4.21%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-25 07:59
Betsson🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -5.69%E -5.08%K -47.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -21.04%E -4.21%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-25 08:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.22%EV -6.53%E -5.88%K -59.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -24.20%E -5.04%K -6.37%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-27 03:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 89.15%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85%0.2%2026-06-27 02:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.93%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.07%0.4%2026-06-27 03:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.93%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.07%0.4%2026-06-27 03:10