The School of Odds
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Carlton Blues v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 08:31 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 72.24%1.38fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -9.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.96%72.19%72.78%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.311.321.3482.64%76.36%75.76%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 27.76%3.60fair odd
EV -0.052%
Edge -0.014%
Kelly -0.020%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%27.81%27.22%29.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.403.6031.25%29.60%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 72.24%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 27.76%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.602. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.600, with an expected value of -0.052%; they did not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.20%E -2.39%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 08:30
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.20%E -2.39%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -8.38%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 08:29
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 08:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.38%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 08:30
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.77%E -3.01%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.77%E -3.01%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 08:30
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.93%E -2.95%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.77%E -3.01%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 08:30
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 08:30
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 08:30
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 08:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 08:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.65%E -3.52%K -14.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-12 08:30
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.09%E -4.69%K -20.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.83%E -0.808%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 08:30
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.09%E -4.69%K -20.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.83%E -0.808%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 08:29
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.09%E -4.69%K -20.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 08:30
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.09%E -4.69%K -20.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.60%E -1.65%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 08:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.09%E -4.69%K -20.31%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.51%EV -9.49%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 08:29
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.09%E -4.69%K -20.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.16%E -3.49%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 08:22
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.09%E -4.69%K -20.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.16%E -3.49%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 08:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.81%E -5.28%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -2.83%E -0.808%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 08:30
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.81%E -5.28%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.22%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 08:30
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.54%E -5.89%K -26.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.052%E -0.014%K -0.020%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-12 08:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.87%EV -12.59%E -10.41%K -59.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -9.77%E -3.01%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-12 08:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-03-12 08:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%0.4%2026-03-12 08:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-03-12 08:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%8.0%2026-03-12 08:30
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%8.0%2026-03-12 08:30