The School of Odds

Carlton Blues v Gold Coast Suns

2026-07-25 03:05 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 56.56%1.77fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -7.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.87%56.56%56.58%57.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.551.651.671.6865%60%60%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 43.44%2.30fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%43.44%43.42%44.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.202.2550%46%45%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.98%E -2.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 09:15
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.98%E -2.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 02:14
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.98%E -2.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.29%E -2.43%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 11:14
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.98%E -2.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 21:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.98%E -2.97%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.60%E -3.07%K -5.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 21:20
Dabble (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.25%E -1.00%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-20 00:20
SportsBet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.56%E -1.60%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-20 02:10
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 02:09
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 02:10
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 02:10
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 02:05
TABtouch1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.55%E -3.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 02:10
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -6.12%E -3.68%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -5.73%E -2.64%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-20 02:10
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.25%E -1.00%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 02:15
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.25%E -1.00%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 00:25
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-20 02:15
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.43%E -2.01%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-20 02:05
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -7.47%E -3.51%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-20 01:20
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.68%E -4.05%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.77%E -4.18%K -7.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-19 17:39
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.38%E -5.17%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.77%E -4.18%K -7.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 10:25
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.38%E -5.17%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.77%E -4.18%K -7.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 10:25
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.87%EV -10.64%E -6.73%K -18.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -13.11%E -6.56%K -13.11%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-19 10:25
NetBet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 56.58%EV -12.34%E -7.96%K -22.43%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.42%EV -12.25%E -6.06%K -12.01%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-20 01:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%6.4%2026-07-19 23:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%6.4%2026-07-19 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%6.4%2026-07-19 23:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.59%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.26%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.0%2026-07-19 10:25