Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues v Geelong Cats

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 09:41 UTC

Final: Carlton Blues 88–84 Geelong Cats

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

24%

76%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 23.80%4.20fair odd

EV +10.66%

Edge +2.29%

Kelly +2.92%

Growth +0.311%

assuming max odds 4.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.63%23.43%24.27%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.984.004.6528.57%25.12%25.00%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 76.20%1.31fair odd

EV -1.70%

Edge -1.32%

Kelly -5.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.07%76.57%75.73%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.231.241.2986.21%81.00%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 23.80%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 76.20%. For Carlton Blues (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.66%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Bet Right🎯	4.65I 21.51%NM 20.65%EV +10.66%E +2.29%K +2.92%G +0.311%	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.35%EV -7.79%E -6.44%K -37.12%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-29 09:39
Marathon Bet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +7.09%E +1.57%K +2.02%G +0.143%	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -10.84%E -9.27%K -63.78%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-29 09:39
Betr (AU)🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +4.71%E +1.07%K +1.38%G +0.065%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -7.79%E -6.44%K -37.12%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-29 09:39
TAB🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -0.052%E -0.012%K -0.016%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.27%E -5.10%K -27.26%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-29 09:39
Pinnacle🎯	4.16I 24.04%NM 22.82%EV -1.00%E -0.241%K -0.318%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.18%EV -6.27%E -5.10%K -27.26%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-29 09:39
Unibet (NL)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.43%E -0.593%K -0.785%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.51%E -4.44%K -22.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Casumo🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.43%E -0.593%K -0.785%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.51%E -4.44%K -22.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
DraftKings🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.43%E -0.593%K -0.785%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.51%E -4.44%K -22.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
TABtouch🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.43%E -0.593%K -0.785%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.51%E -4.44%K -22.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Grosvenor🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.43%E -0.593%K -0.785%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.51%E -4.44%K -22.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
PlayUp🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.43%E -0.593%K -0.785%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.51%E -4.44%K -22.95%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.75%E -3.80%K -18.99%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Neds🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.75%E -3.80%K -18.99%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Dabble (AU)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.75%E -3.80%K -18.99%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Everygame🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -4.81%E -1.20%K -1.60%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.56%E -7.13%K -42.78%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-29 09:39
Coolbet🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.98%E -3.16%K -15.32%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-29 09:38
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.75%E -3.80%K -18.99%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-29 09:39
SportsBet🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.75%E -3.80%K -18.99%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Unibet🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -8.38%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -5.51%E -4.44%K -22.95%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-29 09:39
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -9.57%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.03%E -5.76%K -31.97%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-29 09:39
Coral🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.75%E -3.80%K -18.99%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-29 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.76%E -2.87%K -3.91%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.75%E -3.80%K -18.99%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-29 09:39
BetUS🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.46%E -1.92%K -8.79%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-29 09:39
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -14.33%E -3.98%K -5.51%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 75.63%EV -11.60%E -10.00%K -72.53%G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-05-29 09:39
Paddy Power🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -16.71%E -4.77%K -6.68%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -1.70%E -1.32%K -5.86%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-29 09:38
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -16.71%E -4.77%K -6.68%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 74.31%EV -7.79%E -6.44%K -37.12%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-05-29 09:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%	1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%	0.6%	2026-05-29 09:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%	1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%	0.6%	2026-05-29 09:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%	1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%	0.6%	2026-05-29 09:39

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
Betsson🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.54%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	8.8%	2026-05-29 09:39
NordicBet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.54%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	8.8%	2026-05-29 09:39