The School of Odds
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Carlton Blues v Fremantle Dockers

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 03:15 UTC

Final: Carlton Blues 119–82 Fremantle Dockers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 40.66%2.46fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.39%41.23%40.67%44.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.332.4047.62%43.53%43.01%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fremantle Dockers (Visit)

Prediction 59.34%1.69fair odd
EV -0.896%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.94%58.77%59.33%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.581.581.6767.57%63.28%63.49%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 40.66%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 59.34%. For Fremantle Dockers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -0.896%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.42%E -1.01%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.24%E -3.95%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 02:34
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.42%E -1.01%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 02:34
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.42%E -1.01%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.42%E -4.76%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 02:40
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.42%E -1.01%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.42%E -4.76%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 02:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.42%E -1.01%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.42%E -4.76%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 02:39
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.42%E -1.01%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.42%E -4.76%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 02:39
Bet Right🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.24%E -1.36%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.24%E -3.95%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 03:15
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 02:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 02:55
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 02:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 03:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.24%E -3.95%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 02:35
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.46%E -1.90%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 03:10
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.49%E -2.82%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 03:15
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.49%E -2.82%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 03:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.49%E -2.82%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.02%E -5.17%K -14.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-18 10:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%EV -7.30%E -3.20%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 03:09
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.52%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.46%E -2.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 23:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.52%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.46%E -2.77%K -7.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 23:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.52%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 03:10
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.52%E -3.79%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.98%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 02:39
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -12.59%E -5.86%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 23:24
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -12.59%E -5.86%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -5.05%E -3.16%K -8.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 23:24
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.77%EV -12.59%E -5.86%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.23%EV -12.17%E -8.22%K -25.36%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-22 02:39
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -13.81%E -6.51%K -12.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -0.896%E -0.537%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 03:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -14.62%E -6.96%K -13.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -6.83%E -4.35%K -11.98%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-08-22 03:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%0.5%2026-08-22 03:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%0.7%2026-08-22 03:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.14%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.71%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.8%2026-08-21 23:29