Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 09:40 UTC

Final: Carlton Blues 154–78 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

28%

72%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 27.73%3.61fair odd

EV +10.92%

Edge +2.73%

Kelly +3.64%

Growth +0.397%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.81%27.64%27.95%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.413.354.0033.33%29.36%29.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 72.27%1.38fair odd

EV -2.43%

Edge -1.80%

Kelly -6.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

69.28%72.36%72.05%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.221.301.301.3581.97%76.99%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 27.73%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 72.27%. For Carlton Blues (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.92%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetUS🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +10.92%E +2.73%K +3.64%G +0.397%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -9.66%E -7.73%K -38.64%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-28 12:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +3.98%E +1.06%K +1.45%G +0.058%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -9.66%E -7.73%K -38.64%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-29 02:44
Coral🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +3.98%E +1.06%K +1.45%G +0.058%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -9.66%E -7.73%K -38.64%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-29 06:23
Marathon Bet🎯	3.62I 27.62%NM 25.67%EV +0.378%E +0.104%K +0.144%G +0.001%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.33%EV -9.66%E -7.73%K -38.64%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-01 09:25
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -0.176%E -0.049%K -0.068%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.66%E -7.73%K -38.64%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-31 19:48
Casumo🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.05%E -4.65%K -20.16%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-01 09:35
Grosvenor🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.05%E -4.65%K -20.16%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-01 09:35
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.05%E -4.65%K -20.16%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-01 09:35
TABtouch🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.05%E -4.65%K -20.16%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-01 09:34
Dabble (AU)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -2.95%E -0.843%K -1.18%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.05%E -4.65%K -20.16%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-01 01:09
Neds🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-01 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-01 09:35
Coolbet🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.72%E -1.68%K -2.38%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.60%E -3.49%K -14.38%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-01 08:59
Betr (AU)🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-01 09:20
SportsBet🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.32%E -4.06%K -17.18%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 08:50
Unibet🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.05%E -4.65%K -20.16%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-01 09:34
PlayUp🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-01 09:24
NordicBet🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -7.49%E -5.85%K -26.76%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-08-01 09:30
Betsson🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -8.50%E -2.57%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -7.49%E -5.85%K -26.76%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-08-01 09:28
TAB🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.43%E -1.80%K -6.95%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-01 09:35
Bet Right🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.43%E -1.80%K -6.95%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-01 09:35
DraftKings🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.16%E -2.36%K -9.28%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-01 09:34
Paddy Power🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-01 08:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.88%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-01 09:35
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 71.75%EV -8.94%E -7.09%K -34.38%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-08-01 09:30
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -12.65%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 72.08%EV -11.83%E -9.70%K -53.77%G +0.000%	13.7%	2026-08-01 09:00
Everygame🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -16.81%E -5.60%K -8.41%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.88%E -2.92%K -11.76%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-01 08:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%	1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%	0.5%	2026-08-01 09:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%	1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%	0.5%	2026-08-01 09:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%	1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%	0.5%	2026-08-01 09:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%	1.28I 78.13%NM 71.91%	90.00I 1.11%NM 1.02%	8.6%	2026-08-01 09:29

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.