The School of Odds

Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions

2026-08-01 09:40 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -33.78%
Kelly -51.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.11%0.00%0.00%32.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.882.922.922.9635%34%34%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -71.43%
Kelly -250.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.29%0.00%0.00%67.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.401.401.401.4071%71%71%71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%5.2%2026-07-21 04:14
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%6.2%2026-07-21 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%2.2%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%2.2%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%2.2%2026-07-21 06:10