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Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 08:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 70.99%1.41fair odd
EV -0.610%
Edge -0.436%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.29%70.94%71.11%72.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.341.341.4080.00%74.65%74.63%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 29.01%3.45fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.436%
Kelly +0.610%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.39%29.06%28.89%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.193.203.5034.72%31.30%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 70.99%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 29.01%. For Western Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.53%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -6.29%E -4.77%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +1.53%E +0.436%K +0.610%G +0.009%4.3%2026-03-07 08:34
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.29%E -4.77%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.076%E +0.022%K +0.031%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 08:35
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.09%EV -6.29%E -4.77%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.91%EV -1.08%E -0.318%K -0.450%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 08:34
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.58%E -4.20%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.37%E -0.404%K -0.573%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-07 08:34
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.87%E -3.63%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 08:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.87%E -3.63%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 08:34
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.87%E -3.63%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 08:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.87%E -3.63%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 08:34
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.87%E -3.63%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 08:23
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.71%E -5.93%K -25.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -4.28%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 08:35
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.16%E -3.08%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 08:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.16%E -3.08%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 08:34
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.58%E -4.20%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 08:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.71%E -5.93%K -25.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 08:34
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.71%E -5.93%K -25.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.18%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 08:23
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.58%E -4.20%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -8.63%E -2.74%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -6.29%E -4.77%K -19.66%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.60%EV -8.92%E -2.84%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 08:34
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.45%E -2.54%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.08%E -3.25%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 08:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -3.45%E -2.54%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -11.53%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 08:35
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -3.45%E -2.54%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -11.53%E -3.78%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 08:34
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -0.610%E -0.436%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 08:35
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -0.610%E -0.436%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 08:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.26%E -9.01%K -45.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -12.98%E -4.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-07 08:34
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.90%EV -1.32%E -0.950%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10%EV -14.72%E -5.01%K -7.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 08:35
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -0.610%E -0.436%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -16.46%E -5.71%K -8.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-03-07 08:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-03-07 08:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-03-07 08:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.45%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-03-07 08:34
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.45%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-03-07 08:34