Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 03:10 UTC

Final: Brisbane Lions 126–67 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 87.96%1.14fair odd

EV -4.12%

Edge -3.78%

Kelly -45.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

85.20%87.86%88.11%89.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.071.071.0999.01%93.55%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 12.04%8.31fair odd

EV +8.32%

Edge +0.924%

Kelly +1.04%

Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.36%12.14%11.89%14.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.107.728.009.0016.39%12.96%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 87.96%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 12.04%. For Port Adelaide Power (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.31. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.32%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.76%E -6.38%K -112.63%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +8.32%E +0.924%K +1.04%G +0.087%	5.5%	2026-07-26 02:49
Marathon Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -8.52%E -8.19%K -212.93%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV +8.32%E +0.924%K +1.04%G +0.087%	7.3%	2026-07-26 01:04
PlayUp🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +2.30%E +0.271%K +0.307%G +0.007%	5.2%	2026-07-26 01:24
Betr (AU)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +2.30%E +0.271%K +0.307%G +0.007%	5.2%	2026-07-26 01:25
Pinnacle🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.80%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.48I 11.79%NM 11.20%EV +2.06%E +0.243%K +0.276%G +0.006%	5.3%	2026-07-26 02:35
TAB🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.48%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-26 01:54
Coolbet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.48%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-26 02:19
Bet Right🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.48%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-26 01:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.48%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-26 02:14
Grosvenor🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-26 02:10
TABtouch🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-26 02:10
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-26 02:10
Casumo🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-26 02:09
SportsBet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-26 02:15
Everygame🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.64%E -7.27%K -152.75%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -3.72%E -0.464%K -0.531%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-26 02:29
BetUS🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.49%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.48%G +0.000%	7.55I 13.25%NM 12.51%EV -9.13%E -1.21%K -1.39%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-26 03:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.00%E -4.63%K -62.48%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -9.73%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-26 02:14
DraftKings🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -9.73%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-26 01:54
Coral🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -9.73%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-26 01:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -9.73%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-26 01:54
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 88.13%EV -11.16%E -11.05%K -1115.59%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -9.73%E -1.30%K -1.50%G +0.000%	12.3%	2026-07-26 02:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.12%E -3.78%K -45.76%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -12.74%E -1.76%K -2.04%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-26 00:14
Neds🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -4.12%E -3.78%K -45.76%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -12.74%E -1.76%K -2.04%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-26 00:14
Unibet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -15.75%E -2.25%K -2.63%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-26 01:45
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -15.75%E -2.25%K -2.63%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-24 04:45
NordicBet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -21.77%E -3.35%K -3.96%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-26 02:19
Betsson🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -5.88%E -5.49%K -83.97%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -21.77%E -3.35%K -3.96%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-26 02:19
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 85.20%EV -6.76%E -6.38%K -112.63%G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.80%EV -26.58%E -4.36%K -5.21%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-07-26 03:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%	0.9%	2026-07-26 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%	0.9%	2026-07-26 03:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26%	0.9%	2026-07-26 03:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.44%	6.70I 14.93%NM 13.65%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%	9.4%	2026-07-26 02:20