Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 21:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (0 in analysis )

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd

EV -100.00%

Edge -64.94%

Kelly -185.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.69%0.00%0.00%61.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.541.541.5464.94%64.94%64.94%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd

EV -100.00%

Edge -40.32%

Kelly -67.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.31%0.00%0.00%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.482.482.482.4840.32%40.32%40.32%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 0.00%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%	5.3%	2026-07-30 03:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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