The School of Odds
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Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 06:15 UTC

Final: Brisbane Lions 95–53 Gold Coast Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 80.68%1.24fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -15.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.15%80.69%80.50%82.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.171.171.2091.74%85.56%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 19.32%5.17fair odd
EV +4.35%
Edge +0.806%
Kelly +0.990%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.18%19.31%19.50%22.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.844.905.4025.32%20.66%20.41%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 80.68%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 19.32%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.17. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.35%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -9.64%E -8.61%K -80.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV +4.35%E +0.806%K +0.990%G +0.043%7.8%2026-08-15 03:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -9.64%E -8.61%K -80.37%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV +2.42%E +0.457%K +0.563%G +0.014%8.2%2026-08-11 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.42%E -5.53%K -40.11%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.46%E +0.277%K +0.342%G +0.005%5.3%2026-08-15 06:14
PlayUp🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.42%E -5.53%K -40.11%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.46%E +0.277%K +0.342%G +0.005%5.3%2026-08-15 06:04
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +0.489%E +0.094%K +0.116%G +0.001%4.7%2026-08-15 03:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +0.489%E +0.094%K +0.116%G +0.001%4.7%2026-08-15 03:44
Dabble (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.80%E -4.07%K -26.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.38%E -0.675%K -0.844%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 00:09
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.38%E -0.675%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-13 09:15
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.38%E -0.675%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-13 09:14
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.38%E -0.675%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-13 09:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.38%E -0.675%K -0.844%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-13 09:14
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.80%E -4.07%K -26.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.31%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 00:43
Bet Right🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.80%E -4.07%K -26.69%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.31%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 06:14
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -5.31%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 06:09
DraftKings🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.00%E -3.36%K -21.03%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -9.17%E -1.95%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 06:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.80%E -4.07%K -26.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -9.17%E -1.95%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 06:14
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -11.11%E -2.41%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 02:24
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.19%E -2.66%K -15.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.04%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 12:31
TAB🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.19%E -2.66%K -15.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.04%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 06:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.80%E -4.07%K -26.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -13.04%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 00:45
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.80%E -4.07%K -26.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -13.04%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 04:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 80.50%EV -12.06%E -11.07%K -134.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -13.04%E -2.90%K -3.73%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-15 00:40
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.61%EV -3.19%E -2.66%K -15.95%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.39%EV -14.78%E -3.35%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 06:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.15%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -33.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85%EV -23.67%E -5.99%K -8.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 06:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-08-15 06:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-08-15 06:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%0.9%2026-08-15 06:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%8.5%2026-08-15 06:14
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%8.5%2026-08-15 06:14
LeoVegas🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.75%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-08-15 06:09