The School of OddsBrisbane Lions v Essendon Bombers
Head to Head
Option 1: Brisbane Lions (Local)
Odds
1.00100.00%Min
1.0298.50%Mean
1.0298.04%Median
1.0298.04%Max
Consensus probabilities
87.12%1.148Min
95.41%1.048Max
92.24%1.084Mean
93.10%1.074Median
92.31%1.083IQM
92.76%1.078Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.02 under the IQM model: 92.31%
EV -5.84%Edge -5.73%Kelly -292.11%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Essendon Bombers (Visit)
Odds
6.9014.49%Min
13.017.69%Mean
13.007.69%Median
21.004.76%Max
Consensus probabilities
4.59%21.792Min
12.88%7.765Max
7.76%12.882Mean
6.90%14.500Median
7.69%13.007IQM
7.24%13.808Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 21.00 under the IQM model: 7.69%
EV +61.46%Edge +2.93%Kelly +3.07%Growth +1.89%
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Brisbane Lions (Local) | Essendon Bombers (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 95.41%EV -6.77% E -6.70% K -676.53% G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76% NM 4.59%EV +61.46% E +2.93% K +3.07% G +1.89% | 3.8% | 2026-07-05 10:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 94.34%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88% NM 5.66%EV +30.70% E +1.81% K +1.92% G +0.589% | 3.9% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| Neds | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.39%EV -6.77% E -6.70% K -676.53% G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88% NM 5.61%EV +30.70% E +1.81% K +1.92% G +0.589% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 94.39%EV -6.77% E -6.70% K -676.53% G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88% NM 5.61%EV +30.70% E +1.81% K +1.92% G +0.589% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 09:59 |
| TAB | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.69%EV -6.77% E -6.70% K -676.53% G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.31%EV +15.33% E +1.02% K +1.09% G +0.168% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 93.69%EV -6.77% E -6.70% K -676.53% G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.31%EV +15.33% E +1.02% K +1.09% G +0.168% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| Coolbet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 93.43%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90% NM 6.57%EV +11.48% E +0.792% K +0.850% G +0.098% | 4.9% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.00I 100.00% NM 93.33%EV -7.69% E -7.69% K +0.000% G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14% NM 6.67%EV +7.64% E +0.546% K +0.587% G +0.045% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.00I 100.00% NM 93.10%EV -7.69% E -7.69% K +0.000% G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41% NM 6.90%EV +3.79% E +0.281% K +0.303% G +0.012% | 7.4% | 2026-07-05 09:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.72%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69% NM 7.28%EV -0.051% E -0.004% K -0.004% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 09:58 |
| PlayUp | 1.01I 99.01% NM 92.79%EV -6.77% E -6.70% K -676.53% G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69% NM 7.21%EV -0.051% E -0.004% K -0.004% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| Unibet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -7.74% E -0.645% K -0.704% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 12:29 |
| Grosvenor | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -7.74% E -0.645% K -0.704% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 12:30 |
| Casumo | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -7.74% E -0.645% K -0.704% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 12:30 |
| TABtouch | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -7.74% E -0.645% K -0.704% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 12:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -7.74% E -0.645% K -0.704% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 12:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 90.95%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76% NM 9.05%EV -21.19% E -2.07% K -2.29% G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-05 09:59 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.02I 98.04% NM 90.74%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00% NM 9.26%EV -23.12% E -2.31% K -2.57% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-05 11:05 |
| NordicBet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 88.69%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.31%EV -38.49% E -4.81% K -5.50% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
| Betsson | 1.02I 98.04% NM 88.69%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.31%EV -38.49% E -4.81% K -5.50% G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-07-05 09:59 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.02I 98.04% NM 87.12%EV -5.84% E -5.73% K -292.11% G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49% NM 12.88%EV -46.95% E -6.80% K -7.96% G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-07-05 10:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Brisbane Lions (Local) | Essendon Bombers (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.03I 97.09% | 26.00I 3.85% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.03I 97.09% | 26.00I 3.85% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.03I 97.09% | 26.00I 3.85% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 12:45 |