The School of Odds

Brisbane Lions v Essendon Bombers

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 06:42 UTC

Final: Brisbane Lions 149–59 Essendon Bombers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 93.31%1.07fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -4.73%
Kelly -241.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.91%93.12%93.43%95.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.02100%99%99%98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 6.69%14.94fair odd
EV +40.52%
Edge +1.93%
Kelly +2.03%
Growth +0.821%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.63%6.88%6.57%11.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
8.1014.2214.0021.0012%7%7%5%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

2 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +40.52%E +1.93%K +2.03%G +0.821%2.8%2026-07-12 04:49
Pinnacle1.02I 98.04%NM 94.73%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%18.33I 5.46%NM 5.27%EV +22.66%E +1.24%K +1.31%G +0.296%3.5%2026-07-12 06:20
Neds1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +13.76%E +0.809%K +0.860%G +0.118%3.9%2026-07-12 05:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +13.76%E +0.809%K +0.860%G +0.118%3.9%2026-07-12 05:19
TAB1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +13.76%E +0.809%K +0.860%G +0.118%3.9%2026-07-05 22:44
PlayUp1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +7.07%E +0.442%K +0.471%G +0.033%5.3%2026-07-07 19:59
DraftKings1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +0.375%E +0.025%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 19:19
SportsBet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +0.375%E +0.025%K +0.027%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 05:14
Coolbet1.02I 98.04%NM 93.43%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.57%EV -2.97%E -0.205%K -0.220%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 23:59
Paddy Power1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -6.32%E -0.451%K -0.486%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 05:54
Betr (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -6.32%E -0.451%K -0.486%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 11:19
Bet Right1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.83%E -4.73%K -241.27%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -6.32%E -0.451%K -0.486%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 17:40
NetBet (FR)1.00I 100.00%NM 93.10%EV -6.69%E -6.69%K +0.000%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.90%EV -9.66%E -0.716%K -0.773%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 23:54
Unibet1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -13.01%E -1.00%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 05:54
Coral1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -13.01%E -1.00%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 01:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -13.01%E -1.00%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 04:14
Tipico (DE)1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -26.39%E -2.40%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-06 07:15
Everygame1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -26.39%E -2.40%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 20:24
Betsson1.01I 99.01%NM 89.91%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -39.78%E -4.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-12 04:29
Unibet (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 88.91%EV -5.76%E -5.70%K -575.86%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.09%EV -45.80%E -5.65%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-12 06:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 97.73%44.00I 2.27%NM 2.27%0.3%2026-07-12 06:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 97.73%44.00I 2.27%NM 2.27%0.3%2026-07-12 06:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.02I 98.04%NM 97.73%44.00I 2.27%NM 2.27%0.3%2026-07-12 06:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.02I 98.04%NM 89.91%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-07-12 04:29
NordicBet1.01I 99.01%NM 89.10%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.90%11.1%2026-07-12 06:39