The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 05:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 71.23%1.40fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -10.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.84%71.16%71.12%72.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.321.331.3580.65%75.76%75.19%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 28.77%3.48fair odd
EV -0.160%
Edge -0.046%
Kelly -0.065%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.10%28.84%28.88%31.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.253.303.4735.09%30.80%30.30%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 71.23%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 28.77%. For Adelaide Crows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.47, with an expected value of -0.160%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.84%E -2.85%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-20 00:00
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.55%E -3.40%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 12:49
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.55%E -3.40%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 22:39
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.55%E -3.40%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 22:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.55%E -3.40%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 22:39
TABtouch🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.55%E -3.40%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 22:39
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 12:44
TAB🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 22:14
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -3.90%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 12:45
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 10:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-22 10:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 06:39
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 12:39
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 02:58
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-22 04:44
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.27%E -3.96%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -9.37%E -2.97%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 22:39
PlayUp🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.17%E -0.639%K -0.906%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 09:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.69%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.60%EV -9.66%E -3.07%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 22:09
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.68%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 14:45
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -5.98%E -4.53%K -18.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -13.68%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 16:40
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -6.69%E -5.11%K -21.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -0.736%E -0.213%K -0.300%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 21:19
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.69%E -5.11%K -21.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 20:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.69%E -5.11%K -21.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 12:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.40%E -5.70%K -24.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.93%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 04:09
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.90%EV -8.12%E -6.29%K -27.99%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.10%EV -0.160%E -0.046%K -0.065%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 22:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.84%EV -8.12%E -6.29%K -27.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.16%EV -18.00%E -6.32%K -9.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-23 13:44
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.83%E -6.90%K -31.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -5.05%E -1.53%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-24 01:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.10%EV -11.68%E -9.42%K -48.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.90%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-23 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-24 01:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-24 01:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-24 01:25