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Adelaide Crows v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 09:36 UTC

Final: Adelaide Crows 103–102 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 56.90%1.76fair odd
EV +0.708%
Edge +0.400%
Kelly +0.919%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.15%56.73%57.50%62.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.661.681.7765.79%60.18%59.52%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 43.10%2.32fair odd
EV +12.07%
Edge +4.64%
Kelly +7.54%
Growth +0.910%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.05%43.27%42.50%45.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.172.152.6048.31%45.98%46.51%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 56.90%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 43.10%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.07%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -12.95%E -8.46%K -24.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV +12.07%E +4.64%K +7.54%G +0.910%3.8%2026-04-18 09:35
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.12%E -3.71%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 09:33
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -8.40%E -5.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-18 09:34
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -8.40%E -5.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.02%E -1.34%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-18 09:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.49%EV -9.53%E -6.00%K -16.16%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -3.45%E -1.54%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 09:34
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.98%E -2.98%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.17%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 09:35
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.12%E -3.71%K -9.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.17%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 09:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.96%E -5.60%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.17%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 09:35
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -0.999%E -0.574%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-18 09:35
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.14%E -1.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 09:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.14%E -1.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 09:35
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -2.71%E -1.58%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-18 09:35
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.27%E -1.93%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 09:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.27%E -1.93%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 09:34
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.27%E -1.93%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 09:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.84%E -2.27%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-18 09:35
Dabble (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.41%E -2.63%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 09:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.58%EV -13.52%E -8.89%K -25.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -7.33%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 09:34
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.27%E -1.93%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.62%E -4.07%K -7.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 09:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.27%E -1.93%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.62%E -4.07%K -7.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 09:35
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -3.84%E -2.27%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -9.48%E -4.52%K -8.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 09:35
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -4.41%E -2.63%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -9.48%E -4.52%K -8.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 09:35
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV +0.708%E +0.400%K +0.919%G +0.007%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.85%EV -9.91%E -4.74%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 09:34
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -4.41%E -2.63%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -10.35%E -4.97%K -9.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 09:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.95%E -8.46%K -24.43%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -10.78%E -5.21%K -10.07%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-18 09:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%0.3%2026-04-18 09:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-04-18 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-04-18 09:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.32%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.46%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.6%2026-04-18 09:35
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.32%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.46%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.6%2026-04-18 09:35