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Adelaide Crows v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 09:35 UTC

Final: Adelaide Crows 63–54 Richmond Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 92.38%1.08fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -3.77%
Kelly -98.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.44%92.22%93.10%94.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.021.04100.00%98.08%98.04%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 7.62%13.13fair odd
EV +44.71%
Edge +2.35%
Kelly +2.48%
Growth +1.11%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.09%7.78%6.90%11.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.8013.0013.0019.0012.82%7.69%7.69%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 92.38%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 7.62%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.13. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +44.71%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +44.71%E +2.35%K +2.48%G +1.11%3.3%2026-08-08 08:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -6.69%E -6.63%K -669.26%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +29.48%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.543%4.9%2026-08-03 10:04
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -6.69%E -6.63%K -669.26%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +29.48%E +1.73%K +1.84%G +0.543%4.9%2026-08-03 10:04
Bet Right🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +21.86%E +1.37%K +1.46%G +0.319%4.3%2026-08-08 09:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +14.25%E +0.950%K +1.02%G +0.145%4.7%2026-08-08 09:20
Coolbet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.43%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.57%EV +10.44%E +0.720%K +0.773%G +0.081%4.9%2026-08-06 06:50
DraftKings🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +6.63%E +0.474%K +0.510%G +0.034%5.2%2026-08-08 08:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +6.63%E +0.474%K +0.510%G +0.034%5.2%2026-08-04 05:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 93.10%EV -7.62%E -7.62%K +0.000%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.90%EV +2.82%E +0.209%K +0.226%G +0.006%7.4%2026-08-06 06:50
Coral🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.84%E -4.70%K -161.50%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -0.986%E -0.076%K -0.082%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 15:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.84%E -4.70%K -161.50%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -0.986%E -0.076%K -0.082%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 15:20
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -0.986%E -0.076%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 09:10
TAB🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -0.986%E -0.076%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 08:05
PlayUp🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -0.986%E -0.076%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 07:35
SportsBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -6.69%E -6.63%K -669.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -0.986%E -0.076%K -0.082%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 09:30
TABtouch🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -4.79%E -0.384%K -0.417%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 08:45
Casumo🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -4.79%E -0.384%K -0.417%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 08:45
Grosvenor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -4.79%E -0.384%K -0.417%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 08:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -4.79%E -0.384%K -0.417%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 08:45
Unibet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -8.60%E -0.717%K -0.782%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 08:45
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.43%EV -3.92%E -3.77%K -98.03%G +0.000%11.10I 9.01%NM 8.57%EV -15.46%E -1.39%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 09:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -23.84%E -2.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 10:19
NordicBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.69%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -39.07%E -4.88%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-05 05:39
Betsson🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.69%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -39.07%E -4.88%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-05 05:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.44%EV -5.77%E -5.66%K -288.44%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.56%EV -40.59%E -5.20%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-08 09:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32%0.4%2026-08-08 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32%0.4%2026-08-08 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32%0.4%2026-08-08 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.48%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.6%2026-08-08 04:15

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