The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 10:11 UTC

Final: Adelaide Crows 76–75 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 59.08%1.69fair odd
EV -4.28%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -6.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.29%59.17%59.14%60.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.601.6266.67%63.03%62.50%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 40.92%2.44fair odd
EV -0.983%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.693%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.50%40.83%40.86%41.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.312.322.4247.17%43.36%43.10%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 59.08%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 40.92%. For Port Adelaide Power (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.42, with an expected value of -0.983%; they did not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.28%E -2.64%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 10:10
PlayUp🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.28%E -2.64%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 10:09
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.87%E -3.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.67%E -2.00%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-01 10:06
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.87%E -3.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.07%E -2.19%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 10:10
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.87%E -3.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.07%E -2.19%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 10:10
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.87%E -3.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.07%E -2.19%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 10:10
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.87%E -3.03%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-01 10:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 10:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 10:09
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 10:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 10:09
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.13%EV -6.30%E -2.75%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 10:10
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 10:10
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.06%E -3.81%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -1.80%E -0.751%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-01 10:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.49%EV -6.06%E -3.81%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -8.35%E -3.73%K -6.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-01 10:09
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -6.65%E -4.21%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -0.983%E -0.406%K -0.693%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-01 10:09
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.65%E -4.21%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-01 10:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.65%E -4.21%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-01 10:09
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.24%E -4.61%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.24%E -4.61%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 10:10
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.24%E -4.61%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-01 10:10
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.24%E -4.61%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.94%E -3.53%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-01 09:58
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.42%E -5.43%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.89%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-01 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -10.78%E -7.14%K -21.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.98%E -4.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-01 10:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.56%EV -11.37%E -7.58%K -22.75%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -13.26%E -6.25%K -11.84%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-01 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-05-01 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-05-01 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-05-01 10:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.21%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.87%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.7%2026-05-01 10:09
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.21%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.87%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.7%2026-05-01 10:10