The School of Odds
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Adelaide Crows v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 03:16 UTC

Final: Adelaide Crows 133–65 North Melbourne Kangaroos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 64.65%1.55fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -6.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.84%64.72%64.53%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.451.451.5072.46%68.75%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)

Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.360%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%35.28%35.47%38.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.662.662.8042.55%37.63%37.59%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 64.65%; North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit): 35.35%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-16 03:15
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.37%E -2.81%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 03:15
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.51%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.49%EV -4.90%E -1.82%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 03:14
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -5.60%E -2.10%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 03:14
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 03:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 03:14
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 03:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 03:14
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -5.62%E -3.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -3.84%E -1.41%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 03:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.62%E -3.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 03:14
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.65%EV -5.62%E -3.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.35%EV -5.60%E -2.10%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 03:15
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 03:15
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 03:14
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 03:14
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 03:15
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 03:13
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.84%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -16.92%E -7.20%K -12.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 03:13
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.01%E -0.360%K -0.561%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 03:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 03:15
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 03:15
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-16 03:15
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 03:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 03:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.37%E -2.81%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 03:13
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.50%E -6.78%K -23.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-16 03:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.97%EV -10.79%E -7.82%K -28.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.03%EV -13.38%E -5.46%K -9.23%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 03:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-05-16 03:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-05-16 03:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-05-16 03:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-05-16 03:15
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-05-16 03:15