Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 10:10 UTC

Final: Adelaide Crows 128–49 Gold Coast Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

73%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 72.82%1.37fair odd

EV -3.14%

Edge -2.36%

Kelly -9.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

69.58%72.91%72.73%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.231.281.291.3381.30%77.83%77.52%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 27.18%3.68fair odd

EV +8.71%

Edge +2.18%

Kelly +2.90%

Growth +0.253%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.81%27.09%27.27%30.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.953.493.504.0033.90%28.62%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 72.82%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 27.18%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.71%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bet Right🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -7.51%E -5.92%K -27.83%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +8.71%E +2.18%K +2.90%G +0.253%	3.7%	2026-07-11 10:04
TAB🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.97%E -7.18%K -35.88%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +8.71%E +2.18%K +2.90%G +0.253%	5.0%	2026-07-11 10:00
DraftKings🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -8.24%E -6.54%K -31.70%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +4.63%E +1.20%K +1.62%G +0.075%	5.3%	2026-07-11 09:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.97%E -7.18%K -35.88%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +3.27%E +0.861%K +1.17%G +0.038%	6.3%	2026-07-11 09:54
SportsBet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -8.24%E -6.54%K -31.70%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV +1.91%E +0.510%K +0.695%G +0.013%	6.0%	2026-07-11 09:54
Pinnacle🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.25%EV -6.79%E -5.30%K -24.24%G +0.000%	3.69I 27.10%NM 25.75%EV +0.282%E +0.076%K +0.105%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-11 09:24
PlayUp🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.06%E -4.70%K -20.89%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.16%E -0.601%K -0.832%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-11 05:39
Betr (AU)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.06%E -4.70%K -20.89%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.16%E -0.601%K -0.832%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-11 09:54
Neds🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.79%E -5.30%K -24.24%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.16%E -0.601%K -0.832%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-11 09:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.79%E -5.30%K -24.24%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.16%E -0.601%K -0.832%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-11 09:59
Grosvenor🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.88%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-11 02:14
Casumo🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.88%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-11 02:14
TABtouch🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.88%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-11 02:14
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.88%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-11 02:14
Paddy Power🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.06%E -4.70%K -20.89%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.88%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-11 09:54
Everygame🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.97%E -7.18%K -35.88%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -4.88%E -1.39%K -1.95%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-11 09:19
BetUS🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.60%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-11 02:53
Coral🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.60%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-11 02:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.60%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-11 02:29
Marathon Bet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.79%E -5.30%K -24.24%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -7.60%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-11 09:44
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.51%E -5.92%K -27.83%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.60%E -2.24%K -3.17%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-11 01:59
Coolbet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.14%E -2.36%K -9.53%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -8.96%E -2.67%K -3.81%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-11 06:34
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.33%E -4.10%K -17.77%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.96%E -2.67%K -3.81%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-11 02:15
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -10.43%E -8.48%K -45.34%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -15.75%E -5.08%K -7.50%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-07-11 09:49
NordicBet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -3.87%E -2.93%K -12.10%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -17.11%E -5.61%K -8.35%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-10 10:40
Betsson🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -3.87%E -2.93%K -12.10%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -17.11%E -5.61%K -8.35%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-10 10:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 69.58%EV -6.06%E -4.70%K -20.89%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -19.83%E -6.72%K -10.17%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-07-11 09:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%	0.2%	2026-07-11 10:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%	0.2%	2026-07-11 10:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%	0.2%	2026-07-11 10:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%	80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%	8.7%	2026-07-11 07:15

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