The School of Odds
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Adelaide Crows v Fremantle Dockers

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 08:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 44.55%2.24fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +0.882%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.88%44.54%44.59%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.112.132.2951.28%47.37%46.95%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fremantle Dockers (Visit)

Prediction 55.45%1.80fair odd
EV +2.58%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +3.04%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%55.46%55.41%58.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.701.681.8563.69%58.89%59.52%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 44.55%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 55.45%. For Fremantle Dockers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -13.13%E -6.73%K -13.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.58%E +1.40%K +3.04%G +0.078%5.3%2026-04-03 05:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -13.13%E -6.73%K -13.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.58%E +1.40%K +3.04%G +0.078%5.3%2026-04-03 05:00
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.67%E -4.23%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.96%E -1.69%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-03 08:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -13.13%E -6.73%K -13.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -2.96%E -1.69%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-03 03:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.44%E -3.07%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.52%E -2.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-03 08:10
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.22%E -1.96%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.07%E -2.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-03 08:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.44%E -3.07%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.07%E -2.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-03 08:10
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.22%E -1.96%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.63%E -2.69%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-03 08:10
Dabble (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.22%E -1.96%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.63%E -2.69%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-03 07:25
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.44%E -3.07%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.63%E -2.69%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 08:10
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.22%E -1.96%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.18%E -3.03%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 08:05
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.44%E -3.07%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.18%E -3.03%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-03 08:10
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.90%E -5.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.74%E -3.37%K -8.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-03 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -1.99%E -0.904%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.84%E -4.07%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 08:05
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -1.99%E -0.904%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.84%E -4.07%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-03 08:05
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -8.67%E -4.23%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.84%E -4.07%K -10.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 08:10
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -8.67%E -4.23%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.84%E -4.07%K -10.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-03 08:10
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -1.99%E -0.904%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.95%E -4.79%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 08:10
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -1.99%E -0.904%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.95%E -4.79%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 08:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -1.99%E -0.904%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.95%E -4.79%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 08:10
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -1.99%E -0.904%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -7.95%E -4.79%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 08:10
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -7.95%E -4.79%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 08:10
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.88%EV +2.02%E +0.882%K +1.57%G +0.032%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.12%EV -8.51%E -5.16%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-03 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +0.238%E +0.106%K +0.190%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -8.51%E -5.16%K -13.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-03 07:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -5.11%E -2.40%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -8.51%E -5.16%K -13.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 08:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.28%EV -12.24%E -6.21%K -12.61%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.72%EV -9.62%E -5.90%K -15.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-03 08:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -10.90%E -5.45%K -10.90%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -12.94%E -8.24%K -22.71%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-03 08:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%0.5%2026-04-03 08:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%0.7%2026-04-03 08:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%0.7%2026-04-03 08:10