The School of Odds

Adelaide Crows v Collingwood Magpies

2026-07-23 09:30 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 65.43%1.53fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -8.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.97%65.46%65.63%67.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.351.431.441.4774%70%69%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Collingwood Magpies (Visit)

Prediction 34.57%2.89fair odd
EV +0.259%
Edge +0.089%
Kelly +0.136%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.54%34.37%36.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.722.752.9041%37%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -7.09%E -4.99%K -16.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +0.259%E +0.089%K +0.136%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-19 23:45
TAB1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.78%E -4.02%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-20 02:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.78%E -4.02%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-20 02:04
Bet Right1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.78%E -4.02%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-20 01:25
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.78%E -4.02%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-20 02:05
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.78%E -4.02%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-20 02:40
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -7.09%E -4.99%K -16.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.20%E -1.14%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-20 02:05
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -8.40%E -6.00%K -21.00%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.57%EV -4.24%E -1.53%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-20 01:45
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.13%E -3.54%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 00:10
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.78%E -4.02%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-20 01:20
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.78%E -4.02%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 08:00
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.44%E -4.50%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-20 02:40
Coolbet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.82%E -2.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 13:34
Grosvenor1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.13%E -3.54%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-20 01:45
TABtouch1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.13%E -3.54%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-20 01:45
Unibet (NL)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.13%E -3.54%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-20 01:45
Casumo1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.13%E -3.54%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-20 01:45
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.40%E -6.00%K -21.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-19 17:39
Unibet1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -5.13%E -3.54%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.38%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-20 01:45
NordicBet1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -7.09%E -4.99%K -16.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -10.11%E -3.89%K -6.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 13:30
Betsson1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -7.09%E -4.99%K -16.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -10.11%E -3.89%K -6.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 13:35
NetBet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -11.67%E -8.65%K -33.35%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -12.88%E -5.11%K -8.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-20 01:25
Unibet (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 63.97%EV -9.71%E -7.04%K -25.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.03%EV -15.30%E -6.24%K -10.55%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-19 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03%1.6%2026-07-20 02:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03%1.6%2026-07-20 02:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 66.97%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03%1.6%2026-07-20 02:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 64.05%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.80%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.4%2026-07-20 02:35