The School of Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers v Atlanta Falcons

2026-09-13 17:00 — NFL

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pittsburgh Steelers (Local)

Prediction 58.73%1.70fair odd
EV -0.166%
Edge -0.098%
Kelly -0.237%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%58.67%58.71%60.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.431.631.631.70MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
55.84%1.791Min
60.64%1.649Max
58.67%1.704Mean
58.71%1.703Median
58.73%1.703IQM
58.71%1.703Margin-weighted

Atlanta Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 41.27%2.42fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.458%
Kelly +0.774%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.36%41.33%41.29%44.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.072.292.302.45MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
39.36%2.541Min
44.16%2.265Max
41.33%2.419Mean
41.29%2.422Median
41.27%2.423IQM
41.29%2.422Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

BookmakerPittsburgh Steelers (Local)Atlanta Falcons (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada1.59I 62.89% NM 60.64%EV -6.63% E -4.17% K -11.23% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 39.36%EV +1.12% E +0.458% K +0.774% G +0.009%3.7%2026-07-06 11:12
DraftKings1.59I 62.89% NM 60.35%EV -6.63% E -4.17% K -11.23% G +0.000%2.42I 41.32% NM 39.65%EV -0.117% E -0.048% K -0.082% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 14:25
GTbets1.61I 62.11% NM 59.85%EV -5.45% E -3.39% K -8.94% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 40.15%EV -0.942% E -0.393% K -0.673% G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-08 16:09
Pinnacle1.64I 60.98% NM 59.31%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.39I 41.84% NM 40.69%EV -1.35% E -0.567% K -0.975% G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-07 03:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11% NM 59.55%EV -5.45% E -3.39% K -8.94% G +0.000%2.37I 42.19% NM 40.45%EV -2.18% E -0.920% K -1.59% G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-19 18:50
Coral1.61I 62.11% NM 59.55%EV -5.45% E -3.39% K -8.94% G +0.000%2.37I 42.19% NM 40.45%EV -2.18% E -0.920% K -1.59% G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-19 18:48
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61% NM 58.75%EV -3.10% E -1.88% K -4.77% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 41.25%EV -3.01% E -1.28% K -2.23% G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-09 03:19
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61% NM 58.75%EV -3.10% E -1.88% K -4.77% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 41.25%EV -3.01% E -1.28% K -2.23% G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 07:00
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61% NM 58.75%EV -3.10% E -1.88% K -4.77% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 41.25%EV -3.01% E -1.28% K -2.23% G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 07:00
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35% NM 59.05%EV -4.28% E -2.62% K -6.79% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.95%EV -3.01% E -1.28% K -2.23% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-06 11:14
BetMGM1.62I 61.73% NM 59.19%EV -4.86% E -3.00% K -7.85% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.81%EV -3.01% E -1.28% K -2.23% G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-19 18:50
BetUS1.65I 60.61% NM 58.65%EV -3.10% E -1.88% K -4.77% G +0.000%2.34I 42.74% NM 41.35%EV -3.42% E -1.46% K -2.55% G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-30 07:00
ReBet1.62I 61.73% NM 58.88%EV -4.86% E -3.00% K -7.85% G +0.000%2.32I 43.10% NM 41.12%EV -4.24% E -1.83% K -3.22% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-03 05:05
Caesars1.64I 60.98% NM 58.48%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.31I 43.29% NM 41.52%EV -4.66% E -2.02% K -3.55% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-07 14:24
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88% NM 57.93%EV -1.93% E -1.15% K -2.88% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 42.07%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-06 09:05
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:00
Unibet1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:00
Bally Bet1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 10:59
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 10:59
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 10:59
betPARX1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:04
Svenska Spel1.64I 60.98% NM 58.38%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.62%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:00
Fanatics1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.86% E -3.00% K -7.85% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-07 14:25
Neds1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.86% E -3.00% K -7.85% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-19 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.86% E -3.00% K -7.85% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-19 18:50
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.86% E -3.00% K -7.85% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-09 03:09
William Hill1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -4.86% E -3.00% K -7.85% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-08 14:39
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50% NM 58.97%EV -6.04% E -3.77% K -10.06% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.03%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-08 14:09
Coolbet1.60I 62.50% NM 58.97%EV -6.04% E -3.77% K -10.06% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.03%EV -5.07% E -2.20% K -3.90% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-30 10:08
MyBookie.ag1.60I 62.50% NM 58.87%EV -6.04% E -3.77% K -10.06% G +0.000%2.29I 43.67% NM 41.13%EV -5.48% E -2.39% K -4.25% G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-03 05:05
BetRivers1.64I 60.98% NM 58.16%EV -3.69% E -2.25% K -5.76% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.84%EV -5.89% E -2.59% K -4.61% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-10 10:59
Bet Right1.63I 61.35% NM 58.31%EV -4.28% E -2.62% K -6.79% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.69%EV -5.89% E -2.59% K -4.61% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 11:15
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50% NM 58.44%EV -6.04% E -3.77% K -10.06% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 41.56%EV -7.13% E -3.17% K -5.71% G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-08 14:08
FanDuel1.68I 59.52% NM 57.14%EV -1.34% E -0.798% K -1.97% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 42.86%EV -7.55% E -3.37% K -6.09% G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-18 16:15
NordicBet1.58I 63.29% NM 58.53%EV -7.21% E -4.57% K -12.44% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 41.47%EV -7.96% E -3.57% K -6.47% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-06 09:50
Betsson1.58I 63.29% NM 58.53%EV -7.21% E -4.57% K -12.44% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 41.47%EV -7.96% E -3.57% K -6.47% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-06 09:49
SportsBet1.67I 59.88% NM 57.07%EV -1.93% E -1.15% K -2.88% G +0.000%2.22I 45.05% NM 42.93%EV -8.37% E -3.77% K -6.86% G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-18 16:20
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61% NM 57.25%EV -3.10% E -1.88% K -4.77% G +0.000%2.21I 45.25% NM 42.75%EV -8.78% E -3.97% K -7.26% G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 19:40
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -1.93% E -1.15% K -2.88% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -9.20% E -4.18% K -7.66% G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-18 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -1.93% E -1.15% K -2.88% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -9.20% E -4.18% K -7.66% G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-18 16:15
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69% NM 58.36%EV -7.80% E -4.97% K -13.68% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 41.64%EV -9.20% E -4.18% K -7.66% G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-08 19:44
TAB1.70I 58.82% NM 55.84%EV -0.166% E -0.098% K -0.237% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -11.26% E -5.24% K -9.79% G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-28 07:39
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61% NM 56.58%EV -3.10% E -1.88% K -4.77% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 43.42%EV -11.26% E -5.24% K -9.79% G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-19 17:18
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93% NM 59.14%EV -16.02% E -11.20% K -37.26% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 40.86%EV -14.56% E -7.04% K -13.61% G +0.000%18.2%2026-07-02 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerPittsburgh Steelers (Local)Atlanta Falcons (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.61I 62.11% NM 59.14%2.33I 42.92% NM 40.86%5.0%2026-07-05 02:00
Smarkets1.57I 63.69% NM 58.79%2.24I 44.64% NM 41.21%8.3%2026-07-03 05:05
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.36%TAB 1.70 (59.0%) / Bovada 2.45 (41.0%)Show details
Pittsburgh Steelers (Local)Atlanta Falcons (Visit)Margin
TAB 1.70 (59.0%)Bovada 2.45 (41.0%)+0.361%