Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars

2026-09-20 20:05 — NFL

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Denver Broncos (Local)

Prediction 59.33%1.69fair odd

EV -0.327%

Edge -0.194%

Kelly -0.480%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.14%59.33%59.27%61.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.561.591.561.68MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

57.14%1.750Min

61.58%1.624Max

59.33%1.686Mean

59.27%1.687Median

59.33%1.686IQM

59.35%1.685Margin-weighted

Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 40.67%2.46fair odd

EV +1.68%

Edge +0.671%

Kelly +1.12%

Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.42%40.67%40.73%42.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.242.322.272.50MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

38.42%2.603Min

42.86%2.333Max

40.67%2.459Mean

40.73%2.455Median

40.67%2.459IQM

40.65%2.460Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Denver Broncos (Local)	Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit) ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars	1.56I 64.10% NM 61.58%EV -7.45% E -4.77% K -13.30% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 38.42%EV +1.68% E +0.671% K +1.12% G +0.019%	4.1%	2026-05-15 02:38
Bet Right	1.61I 62.11% NM 59.24%EV -4.48% E -2.78% K -7.34% G +0.000%	2.34I 42.74% NM 40.76%EV -4.83% E -2.06% K -3.61% G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-26 02:11
Betsson	1.56I 64.10% NM 59.27%EV -7.45% E -4.77% K -13.30% G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05% NM 40.73%EV -7.68% E -3.38% K -6.05% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-06 09:39
NordicBet	1.56I 64.10% NM 59.27%EV -7.45% E -4.77% K -13.30% G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05% NM 40.73%EV -7.68% E -3.38% K -6.05% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-06 09:39
DraftKings	1.68I 59.52% NM 57.14%EV -0.327% E -0.194% K -0.480% G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64% NM 42.86%EV -8.90% E -3.97% K -7.18% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-06 11:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.48%DraftKings 1.68 (59.8%) / Caesars 2.50 (40.2%)Show details

DraftKings Caesars

Denver Broncos (Local)	Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)	Margin
DraftKings 1.68 (59.8%)	Caesars 2.50 (40.2%)	+0.478%