Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings

2026-09-20 17:00 — NFL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chicago Bears (Local)

Prediction 63.59%1.57fair odd

EV -0.797%

Edge -0.511%

Kelly -1.42%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.58%63.59%63.32%65.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.451.481.461.56MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

61.58%1.624Min

65.88%1.518Max

63.59%1.573Mean

63.32%1.579Median

63.59%1.573IQM

63.55%1.574Margin-weighted

Minnesota Vikings (Visit)

Prediction 36.41%2.75fair odd

EV +1.94%

Edge +0.694%

Kelly +1.08%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.12%36.41%36.68%38.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.502.582.522.80MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

34.12%2.931Min

38.42%2.603Max

36.41%2.747Mean

36.68%2.726Median

36.41%2.747IQM

36.45%2.743Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Chicago Bears (Local)	Minnesota Vikings (Visit) ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars	1.45I 68.97% NM 65.88%EV -7.79% E -5.37% K -17.32% G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71% NM 34.12%EV +1.94% E +0.694% K +1.08% G +0.021%	4.7%	2026-05-16 23:04
Bet Right	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.86%EV -4.61% E -3.07% K -9.22% G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74% NM 36.14%EV -3.52% E -1.33% K -2.13% G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-26 02:11
NordicBet	1.46I 68.49% NM 63.32%EV -7.16% E -4.90% K -15.56% G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68% NM 36.68%EV -8.25% E -3.27% K -5.43% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-08 05:39
Betsson	1.46I 68.49% NM 63.32%EV -7.16% E -4.90% K -15.56% G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68% NM 36.68%EV -8.25% E -3.27% K -5.43% G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-08 05:40
DraftKings	1.56I 64.10% NM 61.58%EV -0.797% E -0.511% K -1.42% G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00% NM 38.42%EV -8.98% E -3.59% K -5.99% G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-07 14:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.18%DraftKings 1.56 (64.2%) / Caesars 2.80 (35.8%)Show details

DraftKings Caesars

Chicago Bears (Local)	Minnesota Vikings (Visit)	Margin
DraftKings 1.56 (64.2%)	Caesars 2.80 (35.8%)	+0.183%