Chicago Bears v Jacksonville Jaguars

2026-12-06 18:00 — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chicago Bears (Local)

Prediction 57.88%1.73fair odd

EV +0.712%

Edge +0.409%

Kelly +0.962%

Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.15%57.88%57.88%60.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.561.651.651.74MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

55.15%1.813Min

60.61%1.650Max

57.88%1.728Mean

57.88%1.728Median

57.88%1.728IQM

57.52%1.738Margin-weighted

Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 42.12%2.37fair odd

EV +1.09%

Edge +0.453%

Kelly +0.777%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.39%42.12%42.12%44.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.142.272.272.40MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

39.39%2.538Min

44.85%2.230Max

42.12%2.374Mean

42.12%2.374Median

42.12%2.374IQM

42.48%2.354Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Chicago Bears (Local)	Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit) ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars	1.56I 64.10% NM 60.61%EV -9.71% E -6.22% K -17.33% G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67% NM 39.39%EV +1.09% E +0.453% K +0.777% G +0.008%	5.8%	2026-06-22 22:48
DraftKings	1.74I 57.47% NM 55.15%EV +0.712% E +0.409% K +0.962% G +0.007%	2.14I 46.73% NM 44.85%EV -9.86% E -4.61% K -8.65% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-22 22:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.87%DraftKings 1.74 (58.0%) / Caesars 2.40 (42.0%)Show details

DraftKings Caesars

Chicago Bears (Local)	Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)	Margin
DraftKings 1.74 (58.0%)	Caesars 2.40 (42.0%)	+0.870%