The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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St. Louis Battlehawks v Houston Gamblers

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 19:05 UTC

Final: St. Louis Battlehawks 16–23 Houston Gamblers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Louis Battlehawks (Local)

Prediction 75.13%1.33fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -7.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.63%75.03%75.05%75.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.271.271.3081.30%78.55%78.43%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Gamblers (Visit)

Prediction 24.87%4.02fair odd
EV -0.505%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.168%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.10%24.97%24.95%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.443.743.754.0029.07%26.73%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Louis Battlehawks (Local): 75.13%; Houston Gamblers (Visit): 24.87%. For Houston Gamblers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.505%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -2.34%E -1.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -7.97%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-16 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -2.34%E -1.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 18:35
BetUS🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -2.34%E -1.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -14.19%E -4.11%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 18:55
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -3.09%E -2.39%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -4.24%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-16 19:00
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -3.84%E -3.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.24%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 18:39
Caesars🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -3.84%E -3.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -4.24%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 18:44
BetAnything🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.84%E -3.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.84%E -3.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 19:01
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.84%E -3.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 19:01
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.84%E -3.00%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-16 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.59%E -3.61%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.505%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-11 16:19
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.59%E -3.61%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.505%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-12 19:25
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -4.59%E -3.61%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -4.98%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-16 18:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.63%EV -5.34%E -4.24%K -20.54%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.37%EV -2.74%E -0.702%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-16 13:29
theScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.34%E -4.24%K -20.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 13:04
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.34%E -4.24%K -20.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 18:44
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -5.34%E -4.24%K -20.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -11.70%E -3.30%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 19:01
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -5.34%E -4.24%K -20.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -11.70%E -3.30%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 19:01
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.09%E -4.87%K -24.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 19:01
ReBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.66%EV -7.59%E -6.17%K -33.02%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.34%EV -14.43%E -4.20%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-15 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.