The School of Odds
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St. Louis Battlehawks v DC Defenders

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Louis Battlehawks (Local)

Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.363%
Kelly -0.565%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.12%35.33%35.58%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.652.602.8040.49%37.69%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

DC Defenders (Visit)

Prediction 64.65%1.55fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%64.67%64.42%65.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.481.5169.44%67.52%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Louis Battlehawks (Local): 35.35%; DC Defenders (Visit): 64.65%. For St. Louis Battlehawks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -1.02%E -0.363%K -0.565%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-28 03:05
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.02%E -0.363%K -0.565%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.61%E -3.84%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-27 18:09
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.02%E -0.363%K -0.565%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-28 03:04
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.02%E -0.363%K -0.565%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-28 03:09
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -3.84%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -4.97%E -3.38%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-28 03:05
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.55%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-27 14:25
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.55%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-28 03:05
Caesars🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -5.26%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-28 02:57
MyBookie.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -6.67%E -2.53%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -3.67%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-24 23:45
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -2.38%E -1.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 14:59
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 14:59
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 14:59
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 15:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-24 23:19
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 07:39
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-24 23:20
Fliff🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 16:10
ReBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.83%EV -12.68%E -5.13%K -8.63%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-27 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.