The School of Odds
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St. Louis Battlehawks v Columbus Aviators

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 00:09 UTC

Final: St. Louis Battlehawks 31–20 Columbus Aviators

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Louis Battlehawks (Local)

Prediction 68.31%1.46fair odd
EV +0.417%
Edge +0.284%
Kelly +0.888%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.81%68.18%68.54%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4773.53%71.40%71.43%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Columbus Aviators (Visit)

Prediction 31.69%3.16fair odd
EV +2.99%
Edge +0.920%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%31.82%31.46%34.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.762.972.973.2536.23%33.65%33.67%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Louis Battlehawks (Local): 68.31%; Columbus Aviators (Visit): 31.69%. For Columbus Aviators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -7.10%E -5.22%K -19.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +2.99%E +0.920%K +1.33%G +0.040%4.3%2026-05-09 00:00
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.73%E -4.15%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.180%E -0.057%K -0.084%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-08 23:59
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.76%E -0.569%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-09 00:04
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.76%E -0.569%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-08 23:59
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -5.05%E -3.63%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -1.76%E -0.569%K -0.840%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-08 23:59
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -3.35%E -1.10%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 00:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 00:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 23:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.10%E -5.22%K -19.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 00:04
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -5.25%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-08 23:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.52%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 00:04
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.52%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 00:04
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.52%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 00:03
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.31%E -1.62%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-08 23:59
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.00%E -2.11%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-08 23:57
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -1.63%E -1.13%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -9.69%E -3.40%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 23:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV +0.417%E +0.284%K +0.888%G +0.004%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -10.32%E -3.65%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-08 23:59
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.27%E -4.03%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 00:04
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.36%E -3.12%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.27%E -4.03%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 00:04
ReBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.99%EV -7.10%E -5.22%K -19.71%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.01%EV -12.54%E -4.54%K -7.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.