The School of Odds
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Orlando Storm v Birmingham Stallions

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 20:10 UTC

Final: Orlando Storm 17–20 Birmingham Stallions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orlando Storm (Local)

Prediction 63.77%1.57fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.35%63.83%63.86%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.481.481.5472.46%67.45%67.34%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Stallions (Visit)

Prediction 36.23%2.76fair odd
EV +5.07%
Edge +1.75%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +0.135%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%36.17%36.14%37.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.702.9040.00%37.21%37.11%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orlando Storm (Local): 63.77%; Birmingham Stallions (Visit): 36.23%. For Birmingham Stallions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
MyBookie.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -9.45%E -6.65%K -22.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +5.07%E +1.75%K +2.67%G +0.135%4.9%2026-05-03 19:59
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -6.90%E -4.72%K -14.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV +1.45%E +0.517%K +0.804%G +0.012%4.2%2026-05-03 20:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -6.26%E -4.26%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -0.365%E -0.133%K -0.208%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -6.26%E -4.26%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -0.365%E -0.133%K -0.208%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:00
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -6.26%E -4.26%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -0.365%E -0.133%K -0.208%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:00
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -6.26%E -4.26%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -0.365%E -0.133%K -0.208%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:00
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -6.26%E -4.26%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -0.365%E -0.133%K -0.208%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 19:59
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -6.26%E -4.26%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -0.365%E -0.133%K -0.208%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.71%E -2.46%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -2.18%E -0.806%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 19:59
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.35%E -2.90%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.18%E -0.806%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-03 19:59
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%EV -4.35%E -2.90%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -2.54%E -0.944%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 19:59
ReBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.93%EV -12.00%E -8.69%K -31.58%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.07%EV -3.26%E -1.22%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 19:59
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.71%E -2.46%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.99%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-03 20:00
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.35%E -2.90%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.99%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:00
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.35%E -2.90%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.99%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-03 20:00
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.53%E -5.20%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -3.99%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 20:02
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.43%E -1.59%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.80%E -2.23%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 20:00
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -1.80%E -1.17%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -7.61%E -2.98%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 20:00
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -2.43%E -1.59%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -7.97%E -3.14%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 19:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.35%E -2.90%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.42%E -3.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 20:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.