The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louisville Kings v DC Defenders

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:40 UTC

Final: Louisville Kings 33–30 DC Defenders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Kings (Local)

Prediction 32.89%3.04fair odd
EV +3.60%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.060%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.46%32.98%32.89%35.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.803.1537.04%34.95%35.71%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

DC Defenders (Visit)

Prediction 67.11%1.49fair odd
EV -0.676%
Edge -0.457%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.59%67.02%67.11%69.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.431.4872.46%70.31%69.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Kings (Local): 32.89%; DC Defenders (Visit): 67.11%. For Louisville Kings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +3.60%E +1.14%K +1.68%G +0.060%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -7.39%E -5.35%K -19.44%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-16 16:25
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.33%E -0.444%K -0.666%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.37%E -3.81%K -13.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 16:30
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.33%E -0.444%K -0.666%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 16:20
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -2.98%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.03%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-16 16:30
BetAnything🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -2.98%E -1.01%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.03%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-16 16:35
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.36%E -2.33%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.03%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:35
Caesars🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.03%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:18
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.03%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 16:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.91%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 16:35
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.70%E -3.31%K -11.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -11.20%E -4.15%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -0.676%E -0.457%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-16 16:20
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -11.20%E -4.15%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -5.37%E -3.81%K -13.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.