The School of Odds
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Louisville Kings v Birmingham Stallions

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Kings (Local)

Prediction 31.87%3.14fair odd
EV +0.722%
Edge +0.229%
Kelly +0.334%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.09%31.87%31.87%32.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.772.993.003.1636.10%33.49%33.33%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Stallions (Visit)

Prediction 68.13%1.47fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -6.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.23%68.13%68.13%69.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.401.4374.07%71.65%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Kings (Local): 31.87%; Birmingham Stallions (Visit): 68.13%. For Louisville Kings (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.722%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
MyBookie.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV +0.722%E +0.229%K +0.334%G +0.002%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -7.35%E -5.40%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-27 15:43
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.19%E -0.384%K -0.567%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-25 22:00
BetUS🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.78%E -0.913%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.94%E -2.80%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-27 20:34
BetAnything🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -2.78%E -0.913%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.30%E -3.82%K -13.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-27 20:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -3.42%E -1.13%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%EV -3.94%E -2.80%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-27 20:34
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -3.94%E -2.80%K -9.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-27 23:45
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 12:44
Bally Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 12:44
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 12:44
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 12:44
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 12:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 12:44
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.38%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 14:59
Caesars🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -4.70%E -1.57%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-27 23:42
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.58%E -1.80%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-27 23:45
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -3.94%E -2.80%K -9.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 23:50
Fliff🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.62%E -3.30%K -11.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-27 18:29
Fanatics🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.97%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.99%E -4.34%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-27 07:39
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.57%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.99%E -4.34%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-24 23:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.16%E -3.21%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.99%E -4.34%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-24 23:13
ReBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 32.77%EV -11.71%E -4.23%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.23%EV -8.03%E -5.95%K -22.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-27 07:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.