The School of Odds
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DC Defenders v St. Louis Battlehawks

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 16:38 UTC

Final: DC Defenders 28–22 St. Louis Battlehawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

DC Defenders (Local)

Prediction 66.26%1.51fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -4.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.63%66.19%66.43%68.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.441.441.4871.94%69.35%69.20%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St. Louis Battlehawks (Visit)

Prediction 33.74%2.96fair odd
EV +2.91%
Edge +0.954%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.61%33.81%33.57%35.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.802.803.0537.74%35.73%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: DC Defenders (Local): 66.26%; St. Louis Battlehawks (Visit): 33.74%. For St. Louis Battlehawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -6.58%E -4.66%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV +2.91%E +0.954%K +1.42%G +0.041%3.7%2026-04-18 16:14
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -6.58%E -4.66%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV +1.22%E +0.408%K +0.612%G +0.007%4.3%2026-04-18 16:14
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.15%E -0.741%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-18 16:29
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.25%E -3.67%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.15%E -0.741%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-16 21:59
Caesars🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.90%EV -5.25%E -3.67%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.10%EV -2.49%E -0.861%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-18 16:33
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.84%E -1.35%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-15 19:50
BetAnything🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.59%E -3.19%K -10.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.84%E -1.35%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-18 01:20
MyBookie.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.84%E -1.35%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -1.94%E -1.31%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -5.52%E -1.97%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-18 16:25
BetUS🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.92%E -2.71%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.52%E -1.97%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 16:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.24%E -5.17%K -18.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.52%E -1.97%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 21:59
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -3.92%E -2.71%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -6.20%E -2.23%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-18 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.60%E -1.77%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.90%E -3.30%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:30
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.60%E -1.77%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.90%E -3.30%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.60%E -1.77%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.90%E -3.30%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:25
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.60%E -1.77%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.90%E -3.30%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:25
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.60%E -1.77%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.90%E -3.30%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:25
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.60%E -1.77%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.90%E -3.30%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 14:25
Fanatics🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -3.92%E -2.71%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -10.59%E -3.99%K -6.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 16:35
ReBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.59%EV -7.90%E -5.68%K -20.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.41%EV -10.59%E -3.99%K -6.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.