The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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DC Defenders v Louisville Kings

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 17:39 UTC

Final: DC Defenders 13–30 Louisville Kings

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

DC Defenders (Local)

Prediction 82.40%1.21fair odd
EV -1.94%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -10.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.24%82.38%82.35%84.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.161.151.1988.50%86.32%86.96%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisville Kings (Visit)

Prediction 17.60%5.68fair odd
EV +5.58%
Edge +0.930%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.85%17.62%17.65%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.375.536.0021.74%18.62%18.08%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: DC Defenders (Local): 82.40%; Louisville Kings (Visit): 17.60%. For Louisville Kings (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.68. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -6.06%E -5.32%K -43.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +5.58%E +0.930%K +1.12%G +0.062%4.4%2026-05-09 17:29
Bovada🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +5.58%E +0.930%K +1.12%G +0.062%5.2%2026-05-09 17:27
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV +3.82%E +0.648%K +0.780%G +0.030%3.9%2026-05-09 17:29
Caesars🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +1.18%E +0.206%K +0.249%G +0.003%4.3%2026-05-09 17:27
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.46%E -0.260%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 17:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.46%E -0.260%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 17:29
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.46%E -0.260%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 17:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.46%E -0.260%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 17:29
betPARX🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.46%E -0.260%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 17:29
Bally Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -5.24%E -4.55%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -1.46%E -0.260%K -0.317%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.35%EV -3.59%E -3.07%K -21.11%G +0.000%5.46I 18.32%NM 17.65%EV -3.92%E -0.718%K -0.879%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-09 17:30
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.86%EV -3.59%E -3.07%K -21.11%G +0.000%5.28I 18.94%NM 18.14%EV -7.09%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-09 17:29
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -2.76%E -2.34%K -15.36%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -8.49%E -1.63%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-09 17:34
BetAnything🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.59%E -3.07%K -21.11%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -10.25%E -2.01%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 17:29
BetUS🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.59%E -3.07%K -21.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.01%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 17:29
theScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.59%E -3.07%K -21.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -12.01%E -2.40%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 17:30
Fanatics🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.62%EV -1.94%E -1.63%K -10.21%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.38%EV -12.89%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 17:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -2.76%E -2.34%K -15.36%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -14.65%E -3.02%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 17:32
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -3.59%E -3.07%K -21.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -16.41%E -3.46%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 17:34
ReBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.28%EV -6.88%E -6.09%K -52.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -19.05%E -4.14%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 17:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.