The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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DC Defenders v Houston Gamblers

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 16:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

DC Defenders (Local)

Prediction 74.61%1.34fair odd
EV -0.020%
Edge -0.015%
Kelly -0.058%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.91%74.16%74.66%75.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.301.3478.74%76.58%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Gamblers (Visit)

Prediction 25.39%3.94fair odd
EV -0.988%
Edge -0.253%
Kelly -0.341%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.71%25.84%25.34%30.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.023.563.453.9033.11%28.12%28.99%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: DC Defenders (Local): 74.61%; Houston Gamblers (Visit): 25.39%. For DC Defenders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.3403. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.3400, with an expected value of -0.020%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -0.020%E -0.015%K -0.058%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -13.68%E -4.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -0.766%E -0.576%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -12.41%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -0.766%E -0.576%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -13.68%E -4.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -0.766%E -0.576%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -13.68%E -4.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -0.766%E -0.576%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -13.68%E -4.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 15:59
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -0.766%E -0.576%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -13.68%E -4.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 16:00
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -0.766%E -0.576%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -13.68%E -4.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -0.766%E -0.576%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -13.68%E -4.02%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 16:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -3.00%E -2.31%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -6.07%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 16:05
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -3.00%E -2.31%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -14.95%E -4.46%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 16:05
ReBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.91%EV -3.00%E -2.31%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.09%EV -23.33%E -7.72%K -11.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 15:59
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.53%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-11 15:59
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.80%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 16:00
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -6.07%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-11 15:59
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.50%E -3.51%K -16.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -0.988%E -0.253%K -0.341%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-11 16:00
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.50%E -3.51%K -16.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -2.26%E -0.586%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 16:00
Caesars🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.50%E -3.51%K -16.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -2.26%E -0.586%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 16:04
theScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.51%K -16.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.53%E -0.928%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-11 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.24%E -4.13%K -19.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.60%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.