The School of Odds
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DC Defenders v Dallas Renegades

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 16:10 UTC

Final: DC Defenders 24–6 Dallas Renegades

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

DC Defenders (Local)

Prediction 64.77%1.54fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.663%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.53%64.61%65.11%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.471.5669.93%67.52%68.03%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Renegades (Visit)

Prediction 35.23%2.84fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +0.752%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%35.39%34.89%39.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.682.702.9043.48%37.32%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: DC Defenders (Local): 64.77%; Dallas Renegades (Visit): 35.23%. For Dallas Renegades (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -7.39%E -5.16%K -17.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +2.18%E +0.752%K +1.15%G +0.025%4.4%2026-05-02 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV +0.772%E +0.270%K +0.415%G +0.003%3.9%2026-05-02 16:00
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +0.419%E +0.147%K +0.227%G +0.001%4.5%2026-05-02 16:00
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.479%K -0.746%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-02 15:59
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-02 15:59
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.10%E -1.13%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 15:58
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-02 15:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 16:00
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 16:00
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 16:00
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -0.909%E -0.594%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 16:00
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -0.909%E -0.594%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 16:00
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV +1.03%E +0.663%K +1.85%G +0.019%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 16:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.56%E -1.02%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 15:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.91%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 16:00
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -18.96%E -8.24%K -14.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.