The School of Odds
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Dallas Renegades v Orlando Storm

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC

Final: Dallas Renegades 24–31 Orlando Storm

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Renegades (Local)

Prediction 54.99%1.82fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%55.29%55.19%57.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.741.8060.24%57.91%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orlando Storm (Visit)

Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +2.39%
Growth +0.074%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.17%44.71%44.81%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.012.132.102.2949.75%46.94%47.62%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dallas Renegades (Local): 54.99%; Orlando Storm (Visit): 45.01%. For Orlando Storm (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.29, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV +3.08%E +1.35%K +2.39%G +0.074%3.5%2026-05-15 23:50
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -7.07%E -4.19%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV +1.28%E +0.570%K +1.03%G +0.013%3.6%2026-05-15 20:08
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -7.07%E -4.19%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV +1.28%E +0.570%K +1.03%G +0.013%3.6%2026-05-15 23:50
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -7.62%E -4.54%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV +0.832%E +0.371%K +0.671%G +0.006%4.2%2026-05-15 20:10
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.17%E -4.89%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.969%E -0.440%K -0.808%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 23:35
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.32%E -2.49%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-15 22:39
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.32%E -2.49%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-15 22:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.87%E -2.82%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.57%E -2.16%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 22:43
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.97%E -3.49%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.47%E -2.60%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-15 22:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.97%E -3.49%K -8.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.47%E -2.60%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-15 22:40
Caesars🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -3.22%E -1.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -5.92%E -2.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-14 15:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.22%E -1.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-15 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.22%E -1.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-15 23:45
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.22%E -1.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-15 23:44
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.22%E -1.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-15 23:45
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.22%E -1.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-15 23:45
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.22%E -1.83%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-15 23:45
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.03%E -0.570%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.72%E -3.77%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-12 13:39
ReBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -8.72%E -5.26%K -13.22%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 45.23%EV -9.52%E -4.74%K -9.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-15 22:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.