The School of Odds
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Dallas Renegades v Columbus Aviators

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 16:08 UTC

Final: Dallas Renegades 28–23 Columbus Aviators

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Renegades (Local)

Prediction 77.83%1.28fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.914%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.90%77.95%77.70%80.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.221.221.2784.03%82.07%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Columbus Aviators (Visit)

Prediction 22.17%4.51fair odd
EV +7.54%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +1.96%
Growth +0.148%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.70%22.05%22.30%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.394.304.8526.32%22.76%23.26%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dallas Renegades (Local): 77.83%; Columbus Aviators (Visit): 22.17%. For Columbus Aviators (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.51. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.88%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +7.54%E +1.56%K +1.96%G +0.148%4.7%2026-04-12 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.88%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +7.54%E +1.56%K +1.96%G +0.148%4.7%2026-04-12 16:05
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.88%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +7.54%E +1.56%K +1.96%G +0.148%4.7%2026-04-12 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.88%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +7.54%E +1.56%K +1.96%G +0.148%4.7%2026-04-12 16:05
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.88%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +7.54%E +1.56%K +1.96%G +0.148%4.7%2026-04-12 16:05
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.88%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV +7.54%E +1.56%K +1.96%G +0.148%4.7%2026-04-12 16:05
FanDuel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.05%E -4.14%K -22.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.217%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 16:05
theScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.05%E -4.14%K -22.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.43%E -0.553%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.78%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.22%EV -3.77%E -0.868%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 16:00
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 16:05
Caesars🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-12 16:02
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 16:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.05%E -4.14%K -22.96%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 16:05
BetAnything🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-12 15:59
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.05%E -4.14%K -22.96%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -10.20%E -2.52%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 16:02
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -1.16%E -0.914%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-12 16:04
BetUS🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.72%E -2.17%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 16:03
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.05%E -4.14%K -22.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 16:05
ReBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.15%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.85%EV -15.74%E -4.14%K -5.62%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.