The School of Odds
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Columbus Aviators v DC Defenders

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 00:09 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Columbus Aviators (Local)

Prediction 41.81%2.39fair odd
EV +0.350%
Edge +0.146%
Kelly +0.250%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%41.69%41.77%44.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.282.252.4048.78%43.92%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

DC Defenders (Visit)

Prediction 58.19%1.72fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.984%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.71%58.31%58.23%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.651.651.6962.89%60.76%60.61%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Columbus Aviators (Local): 41.81%; DC Defenders (Visit): 58.19%. For Columbus Aviators (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.350%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +0.350%E +0.146%K +0.250%G +0.001%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 00:00
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +0.350%E +0.146%K +0.250%G +0.001%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -6.32%E -3.92%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-04 00:01
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +0.350%E +0.146%K +0.250%G +0.001%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -7.48%E -4.71%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 23:59
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.74%E -0.741%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.99%E -2.42%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-03 23:59
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.74%E -0.741%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.99%E -2.42%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 00:04
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.83%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.99%E -2.42%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 00:05
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.83%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.99%E -2.42%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-04 00:04
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.83%E -1.67%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.48%E -4.71%K -12.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 00:03
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.66%E -0.984%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 00:04
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.66%E -0.984%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 00:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.41%E -2.05%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.41%E -2.05%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 00:04
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.41%E -2.05%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 00:04
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.41%E -2.05%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 00:05
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.41%E -2.05%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 00:05
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.92%E -2.63%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.41%E -2.05%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 00:04
MyBookie.ag🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -7.59%E -3.44%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -2.83%E -1.69%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 00:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.01%E -3.64%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 00:05
ReBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -14.28%E -6.97%K -13.60%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -5.15%E -3.16%K -8.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.