The School of Odds
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Columbus Aviators v Dallas Renegades

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 00:09 UTC

Final: Columbus Aviators 28–14 Dallas Renegades

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Columbus Aviators (Local)

Prediction 31.80%3.14fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%31.62%31.96%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.023.2535.71%32.98%33.06%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Renegades (Visit)

Prediction 68.20%1.47fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -5.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%68.38%68.04%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.391.401.4376.34%71.81%71.68%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Columbus Aviators (Local): 31.80%; Dallas Renegades (Visit): 68.20%. For Columbus Aviators (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +3.35%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.050%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -7.25%E -5.33%K -20.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-14 18:15
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +0.172%E +0.055%K +0.080%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-17 22:38
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.675%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -5.20%E -3.74%K -13.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-17 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.675%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 15:55
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.675%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.675%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 15:59
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.675%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 15:59
Bally Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.675%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 16:00
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.42%E -0.458%K -0.675%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.88%E -4.26%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-13 15:59
Caesars🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -3.01%E -0.986%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-18 00:01
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-18 00:05
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-17 23:54
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -4.60%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -3.84%E -2.72%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 23:59
Pinnacle🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -5.23%E -1.76%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 22:10
ReBet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 30.61%EV -5.55%E -1.87%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.39%EV -10.66%E -8.14%K -34.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 00:04
theScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.47%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-18 00:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.47%E -1.73%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-17 22:35
Fanatics🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -6.19%E -2.10%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.16%E -2.22%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 00:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.78%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 00:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.96%E -3.91%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.52%E -3.23%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.